Introduction

This chapter sets the stage for the energy part of the book, giving population expectations, emissions data, and predictions of where the world might be going in demand for energy in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Details have changed since the first edition, but the larger picture looks about the same.

The chapter begins the discussion of how we can get out of the climate change trap that the world is in because of economic growth, population growth, and a lack of understanding of how our actions affect our environment. Though even the poorest are better off than they were a century ago, global warming will reverse the improvement in the lives of all, unless we do something about it. The source of the problem is the energy we use to power the world economy, and the agricultural practices we use to feed the world population. The problem is solvable, but the solution requires global action.

All of the major emitters of greenhouse gases have now agreed that the problem is real, but have not agreed on how to share the burden of cleaning things up. It will be hard to devise a system of action that allows the developing nations to continue to improve the welfare of their citizens while they also reduce emissions. The consequences are in the future while action has to begin in the present, and that creates difficult political problems for all nations because the costs are now, whereas the benefits will come later (I come to that in Part III).

I start here outlining the sources of the greenhouse gases that cause the problem, how the projections of future energy use that dominate emissions are made, and how we have to reduce emissions over time to stabilize the atmosphere at some new, not too dangerous level. The longer we wait to start, the harder it will be to solve the problem because the emissions will be larger and reductions will have to be larger, faster, and more expensive. The next chapter is about what the economists have to say about how fast to go in reducing emissions. After that, I move to the specifics about various forms of energy.