In recent years there has been much discussion of success and failure in intelligence and many proposals for reform. Much of the focus has been on reorganizations, such as establishing the position of Director of National Intelligence to improve coordination among the various intelligence agencies and creating the Department of Homeland Security, or more advanced technology, such as data mining.

Relatively little attention, however, has been devoted to how to improve analytic thinking in intelligence, especially by examining the historical record to see which analytic approaches have worked – or not worked. To fill this gap, Challenges in Intelligence Analysis: Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present offers examples from the last three millennia. These examples have been drawn from around the world and a variety of disciplines, including national security, law enforcement, and business. The goal is to identify some common approaches and principles; it is hoped that a fact-based understanding of the past will help in generating realistic expectations for the future.

Some people ask – rightly – if there is such a thing as a “lesson of history.” Of course, each situation in the past, as well as each new set of circumstances in the future, is unique and different. Details of what we learn from one situation may not be applicable to other situations, especially in a large number of cases. That said, there are similar problems over time, such as fast-moving situations, tightly held decisions made by adversaries, implications of new technologies, and skilled deception.