Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
  • Print publication year: 2014
  • Online publication date: June 2014

Annex II - Climate System Scenario Tables

Summary

Introduction

Annex II presents, in tabulated form, data related to historical and projected changes in the climate system that are assessed in the chapters of this report (see Section 1.6). It also includes some comparisons with the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. These data include values for emissions into the atmosphere, atmospheric abundances and burdens (integrated abundance), effective radiative forcing (ERF; includes adjusted forcing from aerosols, see Chapters 7 and 8), and global mean surface temperatures and sea level. Projections from 2010 to 2100 focus on the RCP scenarios (Moss et al., 2010; Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011a; van Vuuren et al., 2011; see also Chapters 1, 6, 8, 11,12 and 13). Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios 1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1, TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for methane (CH4) and short-lived pollutants that impact climate or air quality. Emissions from biomass burning are included as anthropogenic. ERF from land use change is also included in some tables.

Where uncertainties or ranges are presented here, they are noted in each table as being a recommended value or model ensemble mean/median with a 68% confidence interval (16 to 84%, ±1σ for a normal distribution) or 90% confidence interval (5 to 95%, ±1.645σ, for a normal distribution) or statistics (standard deviation, percentiles, or minimum/maximum) of an ensemble of models.