Skip to main content
×
×
Home
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 16
  • Cited by
    This chapter has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Zangouei, Mohammad and Haynes, Brian S. 2019. The Role of Atomic Oxygen and Ozone in the Plasma and Post-plasma Catalytic Removal of N2O. Plasma Chemistry and Plasma Processing, Vol. 39, Issue. 1, p. 89.

    Norgren, Matthew S. de Boer, Gijs and Shupe, Matthew D. 2018. Observed aerosol suppression of cloud ice in low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue. 18, p. 13345.

    Christiansen, Bo Alvarez-Castro, Carmen Christidis, Nikolaos Ciavarella, Andrew Colfescu, Ioana Cowan, Tim Eden, Jonathan Hauser, Mathias Hempelmann, Nils Klehmet, Katharina Lott, Fraser Nangini, Cathy Jan van Oldenborgh, Geert Orth, René Stott, Peter Tett, Simon Vautard, Robert Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal 2018. Was the Cold European Winter of 2009/10 Modified by Anthropogenic Climate Change? An Attribution Study. Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue. 9, p. 3387.

    Södergren, A. Helena McDonald, Adrian J. and Bodeker, Gregory E. 2018. An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 51, Issue. 5-6, p. 1639.

    Katzfuss, Matthias Hammerling, Dorit and Smith, Richard L. 2017. A Bayesian hierarchical model for climate change detection and attribution. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue. 11, p. 5720.

    Lohmann, Ulrike 2017. Anthropogenic Aerosol Influences on Mixed-Phase Clouds. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 3, Issue. 1, p. 32.

    Nilsen, Irene B. Stagge, James H. and Tallaksen, Lena M. 2017. A probabilistic approach for attributing temperature changes to synoptic type frequency. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37, Issue. 6, p. 2990.

    Owens, Mathew J. Lockwood, Mike Hawkins, Ed Usoskin, Ilya Jones, Gareth S. Barnard, Luke Schurer, Andrew and Fasullo, John 2017. The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Vol. 7, Issue. , p. A33.

    Boisier, Juan P. Rondanelli, Roberto Garreaud, René D. and Muñoz, Francisca 2016. Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue. 1, p. 413.

    Tagle, Felipe Berner, Judith Grigoriu, Mircea D. Mahowald, Natalie M. and Samorodnitsky, Gennady 2016. Temperature Extremes in the Community Atmosphere Model with Stochastic Parameterizations*. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue. 1, p. 241.

    Yang, Chao-Yuan Liu, Jiping Hu, Yongyun Horton, Radley M. Chen, Liqi and Cheng, Xiao 2016. Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue. 5, p. 2429.

    Gregory, J. M. and Andrews, T. 2016. Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue. 8, p. 3911.

    Lewandowsky, Stephan 2016. Future Global Change and Cognition. Topics in Cognitive Science, Vol. 8, Issue. 1, p. 7.

    Thornton, H E Hoskins, B J and Scaife, A A 2016. The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue. 11, p. 114015.

    Gregory, J. M. Andrews, T. Good, P. Mauritsen, T. and Forster, P. M. 2016. Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue. 12, p. 3979.

    Schurer, Andrew P. Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Obrochta, Stephen P. 2015. Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue. 14, p. 5974.

    ×
  • Print publication year: 2014
  • Online publication date: June 2014

Chapter 10 - Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

Summary

Executive Summary

Atmospheric Temperatures

More than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The consistency of observed and modeled changes across the climate system, including warming of the atmosphere and ocean, sea level rise, ocean acidification and changes in the water cycle, the cryosphere and climate extremes points to a large-scale warming resulting primarily from anthropogenic increases in GHG concentrations. Solar forcing is the only known natural forcing acting to warm the climate over this period but it has increased much less than GHG forcing, and the observed pattern of long-term tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is not consistent with the expected response to solar irradiance variations. The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) could be a confounding influence but studies that find a significant role for the AMO show that this does not project strongly onto 1951–2010 temperature trends. (10.3.1, Table 10.1}

It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in GMST from 1951 to 2010. This assessment is supported by robust evidence from multiple studies using different methods. Observational uncertainty has been explored much more thoroughly than previously and the assessment now considers observations from the first decade of the 21st century and simulations from a new generation of climate models whose ability to simulate historical climate has improved in many respects relative to the previous generation of models considered in AR4.

Recommend this book

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this book to your organisation's collection.

Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
  • Online ISBN: 9781107415324
  • Book DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to *
×