Skip to main content
×
×
Home
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 58
  • Cited by
    This (lowercase (translateProductType product.productType)) has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Gabiri, Geofrey Diekkrüger, Bernd Leemhuis, Constanze Burghof, Sonja Näschen, Kristian Asiimwe, Immaculate and Bamutaze, Yazidhi 2018. Determining hydrological regimes in an agriculturally used tropical inland valley wetland in Central Uganda using soil moisture, groundwater, and digital elevation data. Hydrological Processes, Vol. 32, Issue. 3, p. 349.

    Giraldo-Calderón, Nestor David Romo-Buchelly, Raquel Juliana Arbeláez-Pérez, Andrés Alonso Echeverri-Hincapié, Danilo and Atehortúa-Garcés, Lucia 2018. Microalgae biorefineries: applications and emerging technologies. DYNA, Vol. 85, Issue. 205, p. 219.

    Smith, Christopher J. Forster, Piers M. Allen, Myles Leach, Nicholas Millar, Richard J. Passerello, Giovanni A. and Regayre, Leighton A. 2018. FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue. 6, p. 2273.

    Fernandes, Vanessa M.C. Machado de Lima, Náthali Maria Roush, Daniel Rudgers, Jennifer Collins, Scott L. and Garcia-Pichel, Ferran 2018. Exposure to predicted precipitation patterns decreases population size and alters community structure of cyanobacteria in biological soil crusts from the Chihuahuan Desert. Environmental Microbiology, Vol. 20, Issue. 1, p. 259.

    Lade, Steven J. Donges, Jonathan F. Fetzer, Ingo Anderies, John M. Beer, Christian Cornell, Sarah E. Gasser, Thomas Norberg, Jon Richardson, Katherine Rockström, Johan and Steffen, Will 2018. Analytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue. 2, p. 507.

    Pandey, Ranjit and Papeş, Monica 2018. Changes in future potential distributions of apex predator and mesopredator mammals in North America. Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 18, Issue. 4, p. 1223.

    Lionello, Piero and Scarascia, Luca 2018. The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming. Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 18, Issue. 5, p. 1481.

    Moomaw, William R. Chmura, G. L. Davies, Gillian T. Finlayson, C. M. Middleton, B. A. Natali, Susan M. Perry, J. E. Roulet, N. and Sutton-Grier, Ariana E. 2018. Wetlands In a Changing Climate: Science, Policy and Management. Wetlands, Vol. 38, Issue. 2, p. 183.

    Fu, Yao Karstensen, Johannes and Brandt, Peter 2018. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 14.5° N in 1989 and 2013 and 24.5° N in 1992 and 2015: volume, heat, and freshwater transports. Ocean Science, Vol. 14, Issue. 4, p. 589.

    Povilaitis, Virmantas Lazauskas, Sigitas Antanaitis, Šarūnas Feizienė, Dalia Feiza, Virginijus and Tilvikienė, Vita 2018. Relationship between spring barley productivity and growing management in Lithuania’s lowland. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B — Soil & Plant Science, Vol. 68, Issue. 1, p. 86.

    Mondal, Biswajit and Saha, Ashis Kumar 2018. Geospatial Technologies for All. p. 93.

    Olusegun, Christiana Oguntunde, Philip and Gbobaniyi, Emiola 2018. Simulating the Impacts of Tree, C3, and C4 Plant Functional Types on the Future Climate of West Africa. Climate, Vol. 6, Issue. 2, p. 35.

    Castejón-Porcel, Gregorio Espín-Sánchez, David Ruiz-Álvarez, Víctor García-Marín, Ramón and Moreno-Muñoz, Daniel 2018. Runoff Water as A Resource in the Campo de Cartagena (Region of Murcia): Current Possibilities for Use and Benefits. Water, Vol. 10, Issue. 4, p. 456.

    Hu, Xiaoming Taylor, Patrick C. Cai, Ming Yang, Song Deng, Yi and Sejas, Sergio 2017. Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity. Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue. 1,

    Nummelin, Aleksi Li, Camille and Hezel, Paul J. 2017. Connecting ocean heat transport changes from the midlatitudes to the Arctic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters,

    Dechassa, Chala Simane, Belay and Alamirew, Bamlaku 2017. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa. p. 267.

    Mecking, J.V. Drijfhout, S.S. Jackson, L.C. and Andrews, M.B. 2017. The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 69, Issue. 1, p. 1299910.

    Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet Dorado-Liñán, Isabel Hacke, Uwe G. Seidel, Hannes and Menzel, Annette 2017. Contrasting Hydraulic Architectures of Scots Pine and Sessile Oak at Their Southernmost Distribution Limits. Frontiers in Plant Science, Vol. 8, Issue. ,

    Liu, Yongwen Piao, Shilong Lian, Xu Ciais, Philippe and Smith, W. Kolby 2017. Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue. 16, p. 6481.

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles and Rohmer, Jeremy 2017. Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue. 1, p. 014012.

    ×
  • Print publication year: 2014
  • Online publication date: June 2014

Chapter 12 - Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Pages 1029 to 1076

Summary

Executive Summary

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986–2005, unless otherwise stated.

Scenarios, Ensembles and Uncertainties

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) presents an unprecedented level of information on which to base projections including new Earth System Models with a more complete representation of forcings, new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and more output available for analysis. The four RCP scenarios used in CMIP5 lead to a total radiative forcing (RF) at 2100 that spans a wider range than that estimated for the three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), RCP2.6 being almost 2 W m−2 lower than SRES B1 by 2100. The magnitude of future aerosol forcing decreases more rapidly in RCP scenarios, reaching lower values than in SRES scenarios through the 21st century. Carbon dioxide (CO2) represents about 80 to 90% of the total anthropogenic forcing in all RCP scenarios through the 21st century. The ensemble mean total effective RFs at 2100 for CMIP5 concentration-driven projections are 2.2, 3.8, 4.8 and 7.6 W m−2 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 respectively, relative to about 1850, and are close to corresponding Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)-based estimates (2.4, 4.0, 5.2 and 8.0 W m2).

Recommend this book

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this book to your organisation's collection.

Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
  • Online ISBN: 9781107415324
  • Book DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to *
×