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5 - Calibration and Validation

from Part I - A Complexity Approach to Sustainable Development

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2024

Omar A. Guerrero
Affiliation:
The Alan Turing Institute, London
Gonzalo Castañeda
Affiliation:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
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Summary

This chapter elaborates on the calibration and validation procedures for the model. First, we describe our calibration strategy in which a customised optimisation algorithm makes use of a multi-objective function, preventing the loss of indicator-specific error information. Second, we externally validate our model by replicating two well-known statistical patterns: (1) the skewed distribution of budgetary changes and (2) the negative relationship between development and corruption. Third, we internally validate the model by showing that public servants who receive more positive spillovers tend to be less efficient. Fourth, we analyse the statistical behaviour of the model through different tests: validity of synthetic counterfactuals, parameter recovery, overfitting, and time equivalence. Finally, we make a brief reference to the literature on estimating SDG networks.

Information

Type
Chapter
Information
Complexity Economics and Sustainable Development
A Computational Framework for Policy Priority Inference
, pp. 129 - 164
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NC
This content is Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence CC-BY-NC 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/cclicenses/

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