A few years ago, I was put in touch with a Republican state legislator just as he was thinking about switching parties. His decision process, like that of other party switchers, would involve a mix of electoral, policy, and personal considerations. As scholars, we rarely observe a decision of this magnitude until after the fact. In this instance, however, I was able to speak with this legislator before he made his decision to switch parties; then again right after he switched; after his first primary election in his new party; and after his reelection in the fall. To my knowledge, this is the first time a scholar is able to document the decision to switch parties in “real time.”

This chapter offers a unique glimpse into the mindset of a party switcher. This legislator's experience and the way he navigated the decision is consistent with my theory and empirical results from the preceding chapters of the book. This chapter advances our understanding of elite decision making in two significant ways. First, I document the decision from the standpoint of the legislator at various points in time. This “real-time” access gives us insight into the mind of the legislator as he navigates the decision and its rocky aftermath. Second, I show a clear connection between the theoretical assumptions about costs, the reactions in the district and in the legislature, and various empirical findings from earlier chapters, on the one hand, and the particulars of this case, on the other. I do not claim this to be a representative case – though nothing suggests it is not either. I simply take advantage of the unprecedented access I obtained in order to demonstrate the validity of my theoretical argument. The narrative format departs from the typical (mostly quantitative) scholarship on parties and legislatures, but provides the most detailed account of a legislator's career-defining decision to switch parties.

Before the Switch

In our first conversation, I asked the legislator to talk me through his decision process. He told me at the time that he was still weighing the pros and cons. It quickly became apparent to me, however, that he had already made up his mind. He seemed to want some reassurance that what he was about to do would not amount to career suicide.