Decision, Probability and Utility: Selected Readings

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511609220

Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-vi
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List of contributors
pp vii-viii
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Preface
pp ix-x
- By Peter Gärdenfors, Lunds Universitet, Sweden, Nils-Eric Sahlin, Lunds Universitet, Sweden
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1 - Introduction: Bayesian decision theory – foundations and problems
pp 1-16
- By Peter Gärdenfors, Lunds Universitet, Nils-Eric Sahlin, Lunds Universitet
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Part I - Foundations of Bayesian decision theory
pp 17-18
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2 - Truth and probability
pp 19-47
- By Frank P. Ramsey, University of Cambridge
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3 - Individual decision making under uncertainty
pp 48-79
- By R. Duncan Luce, Harvard University, Howard Raiffa, Harvard University
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4 - The sure-thing principle
pp 80-85
- By Leonard J. Savage, Yale University
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5 - Probable knowledge
pp 86-96
- By Richard C. Jeffrey, Princeton University
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Part II - Conceptualization of probability and utility
pp 97-100
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6 - Bets and beliefs
pp 101-117
- By Henry E. Kyburg, University of Rochester
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7 - Slightly more realistic personal probability
pp 118-135
- By Ian Hacking, University of Toronto
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8 - Risk aversion as a problem of conjoint measurement
pp 136-158
- By Bengt Hansson, Lunds Universitet
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Part III - Questionable rules of rationality
pp 159-162
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9 - Allais' paradox
pp 163-165
- By Leonard J. Savage, Yale University
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10 - Sure-thing doubts
pp 166-182
- By Edward F. McClennen, Washington University
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11 - Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
pp 183-214
- By Daniel Kahneman, University of British Columbia, Amos Tversky, Stanford University
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12 - Generalized expected utility analysis and the nature of observed violations of the independence axiom
pp 215-240
- By Mark Machina, University of California, San Diego
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Part IV - Unreliable probabilities
pp 241-244
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13 - Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms
pp 245-269
- By Daniel Ellsberg, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica
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14 - Self-knowledge, uncertainty, and choice
pp 270-286
- By Frederic Schick, Rutgers University
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15 - On indeterminate probabilities
pp 287-312
- By Isaac Levi, Columbia University
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16 - Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making
pp 313-334
- By Peter Gärdenfors, Lunds Universitet, Nils-Eric Sahlin, Lunds Universitet
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Part V - Causal decision theory
pp 335-340
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17 - Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility
pp 341-376
- By Allan Gibbard, University of Pittsburgh, William L. Harper, University of Western Ontario
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18 - Causal decision theory
pp 377-405
- By David Lewis, Princeton University
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19 - Ratifiability and stability
pp 406-425
- By Wlodzimierz Rabinowicz, Uppsala Universitet
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References
pp 426-442
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Name index
pp 443-446
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