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1 - The Missing Variable

The “International System” as the Link between Third and Fourth Wave Models of Democratization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

By
Michael McFaul
Edited by
Valerie Bunce ,
Michael McFaul  and
Kathryn Stoner-Weiss
Michael McFaul
Affiliation:
Stanford University
Valerie Bunce
Affiliation:
Cornell University, New York
Michael McFaul
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Kathryn Stoner-Weiss
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
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Summary

The first transitions from communist rule in Eastern Europe and Eurasia at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s did not resemble many of the transitions from authoritarian rule in the previous two decades. Why? Some have suggested that countries in the communist world shared distinguishing historical legacies or particular institutional configurations that made them different from countries in Latin America and Southern Europe, which had path-dependent consequences for the kind of transition they experienced. These differences are most certainly a major part of the explanation. However, this chapter argues that the configuration of the international system also played a causal role. The bipolar system of the Cold War constrained the kinds of transitions possible, both in the “East” and in the “West.” By 1989, this international system was in transition to a new global order anchored by one hegemon, the United States. This new system allowed a wider range of transitions than were possible in the previous era. The international system is the missing independent variable that helps unify theories about the third wave and the fourth wave, and moves us closer to a general theory of democratization.

To demonstrate the causal influence of the international system on regime transitions, the essay proceeds as follows. Section I outlines the basic elements of the third wave literature and then contrasts this paradigm with the basic elements of the fourth wave model.

Type
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Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World , pp. 3 - 29
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2009

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