Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Prologue
- PART I WAVES OF REGIME CHANGE: FROM DICTATORSHIP TO DEMOCRACY…AND BACK?
- 1 The Missing Variable
- 2 A Regional Tradition
- PART II ENCOURAGING DEMOCRACY: THE ROLE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
- PART III CHOOSING REGIME CHANGE: DEMOCRATIZING ELECTIONS
- PART IV RESISTING REFORM: BACKSLIDING DEMOCRACIES AND ENDURING AUTOCRACIES
- Epilogue
- Index
- References
1 - The Missing Variable
The “International System” as the Link between Third and Fourth Wave Models of Democratization
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Prologue
- PART I WAVES OF REGIME CHANGE: FROM DICTATORSHIP TO DEMOCRACY…AND BACK?
- 1 The Missing Variable
- 2 A Regional Tradition
- PART II ENCOURAGING DEMOCRACY: THE ROLE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
- PART III CHOOSING REGIME CHANGE: DEMOCRATIZING ELECTIONS
- PART IV RESISTING REFORM: BACKSLIDING DEMOCRACIES AND ENDURING AUTOCRACIES
- Epilogue
- Index
- References
Summary
The first transitions from communist rule in Eastern Europe and Eurasia at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s did not resemble many of the transitions from authoritarian rule in the previous two decades. Why? Some have suggested that countries in the communist world shared distinguishing historical legacies or particular institutional configurations that made them different from countries in Latin America and Southern Europe, which had path-dependent consequences for the kind of transition they experienced. These differences are most certainly a major part of the explanation. However, this chapter argues that the configuration of the international system also played a causal role. The bipolar system of the Cold War constrained the kinds of transitions possible, both in the “East” and in the “West.” By 1989, this international system was in transition to a new global order anchored by one hegemon, the United States. This new system allowed a wider range of transitions than were possible in the previous era. The international system is the missing independent variable that helps unify theories about the third wave and the fourth wave, and moves us closer to a general theory of democratization.
To demonstrate the causal influence of the international system on regime transitions, the essay proceeds as follows. Section I outlines the basic elements of the third wave literature and then contrasts this paradigm with the basic elements of the fourth wave model.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2009
References
, “Comparative Democratization: Big and Bounded Generalizations.” Comparative Political Studies, 33, Nos. 6–7 (August–September 2000), pp. 703–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, The State Against Society. Political Crises and Their Aftermath in East Central Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996)Google Scholar
, “The Emerging Discipline of Political Economy.” In Perspectives on Positive Political Economy, and , eds., p. 13 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990)Google Scholar
, “Surprise in the East European Revolutions.” In Liberalization and Democratization: Change in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, , ed., p. 22 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991)Google Scholar
, “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.” American Political Science Review, 53 (March 1959): pp. 69–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Modernization in Historical Perspective: The Case of Imperial Germany.” World Politics, 53, No. 3 (April 2001), pp. 431–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and , “Order, Disorder, and Economic Change: Latin America vs. North America.” In Governing for Prosperity, and , eds., pp. 17–58 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000)Google Scholar
, “Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America.” Comparative Politics, 23, No. 1 (October 1990), p. 2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Petroleum and Political Pacts: The Transition to Democracy in Venezuela.” Latin American Research Review, 22 (1987), pp. 63–94Google Scholar
and , “Democratization around the Globe: Opportunities and Risks.” In World Security, and , eds., pp. 43–62 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994)Google Scholar
, “Bringing Society Back into Democratic Transition Theory after 1989: Pact Making and Regime Collapse.” East European Politics and Societies, 7, No. 3 (Fall 1993), p. 484Google Scholar
, “Problems in the Study of Transition to Democracy.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives, Vol. 3, , , and , eds., p. 63 (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986)Google Scholar
, Forging Democracy from Below, pp. 78–110 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000)Google Scholar
, “Myths of Moderation: Confrontation and Conflict During the Democratic Transitions.” Comparative Politics, 29, No. 3 (April 1997), pp. 305–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, To Craft Democracies: An Essay on Democratic Transitions (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990)Google Scholar
, Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World (Boston: Beacon Press, 1966)Google Scholar
, Paths towards Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and Southern America (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America.” Comparative Politics, 23 (October 1990), p. 8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Will More Countries Become Democratic?” Political Science Quarterly, 99, No. 2 (Summer 1984), p. 6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Empirical Democratic Theory.” In Competitive Elections in Developing Countries, and , eds., p. 26 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1987)Google Scholar
, “Labor Movements in Transitions to Democracy.” Comparative Politics, 21, No. 3 (July 1989), pp. 405–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and , Capitalist Development and Democratic Change, p. 271 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992)Google Scholar
, “Transitions from Communism: State-Centered Approaches.” In Can Democracy Take Root in Post-Soviet Russia?, , , and , eds., p. 209 (Lantham, MD: Roman and Littlefield, 1998)Google Scholar
, “Transition to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model.” Comparative Politics, 2 (1970), p. 352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Russia's Crisis and the Crisis of Russology.” In Reexamining the Soviet Experience, and , eds., especially pp. 158–61 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996)Google Scholar
, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, p. 87 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Paradigm Lost: Dependence to Democracy.” World Politics, 40 (April 1988), p. 379CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Liberalism, Constitutionalism, and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics, p. 118 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990)Google Scholar
, “Comparative Democratization: Lessons from Russia and the Postcommunist World,” In After the Collapse of Communism: Comparative Lessons of Transition, and , eds., pp. 207–31 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Russia's Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2001)Google Scholar
, “Regional Differences in Democratization: The East versus the South.” Post-Soviet Affairs, 14, No. 3 (1998), pp. 187–211Google Scholar
, “Should Transitologists Be Grounded?” Slavic Review, 54, No. 1 (1995), pp. 111–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
with , “The Conceptual Travels of Transitologists and Consolidologists: How Far East Should They Go?” Slavic Review, 53, No. 1 (Spring 1994), pp. 173–85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Russia's Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2001)Google Scholar
, “Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions.” World Politics, 50 (January 1998), pp. 203–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Political Economy of Postsocialism.” Slavic Review, 58 (Winter 1999), pp. 756–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Building Capitalism: The Transformation of the Former Soviet Bloc (Cambridge University Press, 2002)Google Scholar
, , and , “The Elite Variable in Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns.” American Sociological Review, 54 (February 1989), pp. 17–32Google Scholar
, “Why a Constitution?” In The Federalist Papers and the New Institutionalism, and , eds., pp. 100–20 (New York: Agathon Press, 1989)Google Scholar
, “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization, 49, No. 3 (Summer 1995), pp. 379–414CrossRefGoogle Scholar
makes a related observation in The Causes of War (New York: The Free Press, 1973), p. 26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Peace, War, and the Balance of Power.” American Political Science Review, 88, No. 3 (September 1994), pp. 596–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law.” American Political Science Review, 91, No. 2 (June 1997), pp. 245–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Institutions and Social Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Global Communications and National Power: Life on the Pareto Frontier.” World Politics, 43 (1991), pp. 336–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Ruling the World: Power Politics and the Rise of Supranational Institutions (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Politics of Structural Choice: Toward a Theory of Public Bureaucracy.” In Organization Theory: From Chester Barnard to the Present and Beyond, , ed., pp. 116–53 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990)Google Scholar
, “The Foreign Imposition of Domestic Institutions.” International Organization, 56, No. 2 (Spring 2002), pp. 375–410CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization.” International Organization, 65, No. 3 (Summer 2002), pp. 515–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “International Aspects of Democratization.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives, , , and , eds., pp. 3–46 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986)Google Scholar
, , and , European Integration and the Transformation of Turkish Democracy, EU–Turkey Working Papers, No. 2 (August 2004)Google Scholar
, The European Union and the Promotion of Democracy: Europe's Mediterranean and Asian Policies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and , eds., The Europeanization of Central and Eastern Europe (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2005)
, ed., Democratization in the European Neighbourhood (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2005)
, Designing Democracy: EU Enlargement and Regime Change in Post-Communist Europe (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999)Google Scholar
, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives (New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1995)Google Scholar
, “Democracy Assistance: The State of the Art.” In Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization, , ed., pp. 339–62 (London: Frank Cass, 2000)Google Scholar
, “The State of the Art in International Democracy Promotion: Results of a Joint European–North American Research Network.” Democratization, 10, No. 2 (Summer 2003), pp. 21–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World.” World Politics, 54, No. 2 (January 2002), pp. 212–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Sixth Great Power: On the Study of Revolution in the International System.” Review of International Studies, 16 (1990), pp. 217–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Problems in the Study of Transition to Democracy.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives, Vol. 3, , , and , eds., p. 63 (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986)Google Scholar
, Intervention and Revolution: American Confrontation with Insurgent Movements around the World (New York: New American Library/World, 1968)Google Scholar
and , “Engaging Autocratic Allies to Promote Democracy.” The Washington Quarterly (Spring 2006), pp. 7–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Stability of a Unipolar World.” International Security, 24, No. 1 (Summer 1999), pp. 5–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Eagle has Crash Landed.” Foreign Policy, 131 (July–August 2002), pp. 60–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-First Century (New York: Knopf, 2002)Google Scholar
, Action and Reaction in World Politics: International Systems in Perspective, Chap. 2, pp. 17–30 (Boston: Little, Brown, 1963)Google Scholar
and , “International Linkage and Democratization.” Journal of Democracy, 16, No. 3 (2005), pp. 20–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America.” Comparative Politics, 23 (October 1990), p. 8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and , Power and Purpose, Chap. 2, pp. 18–40 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003)Google Scholar
, “Thwarting the Specter of Russian Fascism.” Demokratizatsiya, 1, No. 2 (Winter 1993), pp. 1–19Google Scholar
, Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage and Integration after Communism (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, The Helsinki Effect: International Norms, Human Rights and the Demise of Communism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001)Google Scholar
, Unarmed Forces: The Transitional Movement to End the Cold War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1999)Google Scholar
, Changing Course: Ideas, Politics, and the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and , “The International Sources of Soviet Change.” International Security, 16, No. 3 (Winter 1991–2), pp. 74–118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The ‘Mystery’ of the Soviet Collapse.” Journal of Democracy, 16, No. 2 (2006), pp. 21–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, “The Sovereignty Script: Red Book for Russian Revolutionaries.” In Problematic Sovereignty, , ed., pp. 194–223 (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001)Google Scholar
, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999)Google Scholar
, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives (New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1995)Google Scholar
, “The Rise of ‘Political Aid.’” In Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, , , , and , eds., pp. 295–324 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997)Google Scholar
- 3
- Cited by