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24 - Future scenarios of nitrogen in Europe

from Part V - European nitrogen policies and future challenges

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2011

By
Wilfried Winiwarter ,
Jean-Paul Hettelingh ,
Alex F. Bouwman ,
Wim de Vries ,
Jan Willem Erisman ,
James Galloway ,
Zbigniew Klimont ,
Allison Leach ,
Adrian Leip  and
Christian Pallière
...Show all authors
Edited by
Mark A. Sutton ,
Clare M. Howard ,
Jan Willem Erisman ,
Gilles Billen ,
Albert Bleeker ,
Peringe Grennfelt ,
Hans van Grinsven  and
Bruna Grizzetti
Wilfried Winiwarter
Affiliation:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Jean-Paul Hettelingh
Affiliation:
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
Alex F. Bouwman
Affiliation:
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Wim de Vries
Affiliation:
Wageningen University and Research Centre
Jan Willem Erisman
Affiliation:
Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
James Galloway
Affiliation:
University of Virginia
Zbigniew Klimont
Affiliation:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Allison Leach
Affiliation:
University of Virginia
Adrian Leip
Affiliation:
European Commission Joint Research Centre
Christian Pallière
Affiliation:
Fertilizers Europe
Uwe A. Schneider
Affiliation:
KlimaCampus, Hamburg University
Till Spranger
Affiliation:
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Mark A. Sutton
Affiliation:
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins
Affiliation:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Klaas W. van der Hoek
Affiliation:
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
Peter Witzke
Affiliation:
EuroCARE GmbH
Mark A. Sutton
Affiliation:
NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK
Clare M. Howard
Affiliation:
NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK
Jan Willem Erisman
Affiliation:
Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
Gilles Billen
Affiliation:
CNRS and University of Paris VI
Albert Bleeker
Affiliation:
Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
Peringe Grennfelt
Affiliation:
Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL)
Hans van Grinsven
Affiliation:
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Bruna Grizzetti
Affiliation:
European Commission Joint Research Centre
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Summary

Executive summary

Nature of the problem

  • The future effects of nitrogen in the environment will depend on the extent of nitrogen use and the practical application techniques of nitrogen in a similar way as in the past. Projections and scenarios are appropriate tools for extrapolating current knowledge into the future. However, these tools will not allow future system turnovers to be predicted.

Approaches

  • In principle, scenarios of nitrogen use follow the approaches currently used for air pollution, climate, or ecosystem projections. Short-term projections (to 2030) are developed using a ‘baseline’ path of development, which considers abatement options that are consistent with European policy. For medium-term projections (to 2050) and long-term projections, the European Nitrogen Assessment (ENA) applies a ‘storyline’ approach similar to that used in the IPCC SRES scenarios. Beyond 2050 in particular, such storylines also take into account technological and behavioral shifts.

Key findings/state of knowledge

  • The ENA distinguishes between driver-oriented and effect-oriented factors determining nitrogen use. Parameters that cause changes in nitrogen fixation or application are called drivers. In a driver-based approach, it is assumed that any variation of these parameters will also trigger a change in nitrogen pollution. In an effect-based approach, as the adverse effects of nitrogen become evident in the environment, introduction of nitrogen abatement legislation requiring the application of more efficient abatement measures is expected. This approach needs to rely on a target that is likely to be maintained in the future (e.g. human health). Nitrogen abatement legislation based on such targets will aim to counter any growth in adverse environmental effects that occur as a result of increased nitrogen application.

  • […]

Information

Type
Chapter
Information
The European Nitrogen Assessment
Sources, Effects and Policy Perspectives
 , pp. 551 - 569
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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