Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-nwzlb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-19T11:58:10.583Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

CHAPTER SIX - Will climate change push grasslands past critical thresholds?

from Part I - Grassland dynamics and climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 March 2019

David J. Gibson
Affiliation:
Southern Illinois University, Carbondale
Jonathan A. Newman
Affiliation:
University of Guelph, Ontario
Get access

Summary

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

6.6 References

Reynolds, JF, Smith, DMS, Lambin, EF, Turner, BL, Mortimore, M, Batterbury, SPJ, et al. Global desertification: building a science for dryland development. Science. 2007;316(5826):847–51.Google Scholar
Scholes, RJ, Archer, SR. Tree–grass interactions in savannas. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. 1997;28(1):517–44.Google Scholar
Ladwig, LM, Ratajczak, ZR, Ocheltree, TW, Hafich, KA, Churchill, AC, Frey, SJK, et al. Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems. Ecology. 2016;97(2):372–82.Google Scholar
Tilman, D, Isbell, F, Cowles, JM. Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution & Systematics. 2014;45:471–93.Google Scholar
Jones, MB. Projected climate change and the global distribution of grasslands. In: Gibson, DJ, Newman, JA, editors. Grasslands and climate change. Ecological reviews. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2019. pp. 67–81.Google Scholar
Kirtman, B, Power, SB, Adedoyin, AJ, Boer, GJ, Bojariu, R, Camilloni, I, et al. Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, G-K, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, et al., editors. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2013.Google Scholar
Collins, SL, Carpenter, SR, Swinton, SM, Orenstein, DE, Childers, DL, Gragson, TL, et al. An integrated conceptual framework for long‐term social–ecological research. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2011;9(6):351–7.Google Scholar
Jentsch, A, Kreyling, J, Beierkuhnlein, C. A new generation of climate‐change experiments: events, not trends. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2007;5(7):365–74.Google Scholar
Smith, MD. An ecological perspective on extreme climatic events: a synthetic definition and framework to guide future research. Journal of Ecology. 2011;99(3):656–63.Google Scholar
Holling, CS. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. 1973;4(1):123.Google Scholar
Scheffer, M. Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 2009.Google Scholar
van Nes, EH, Arani, BMS, Staal, A, van der Bolt, B, Flores, BM, Bathiany, S, et al. What do you mean,‘tipping point’? Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2016;31(12):902–4.Google Scholar
Briske, DD, Bestelmeyer, BT, Stringham, TK, Shaver, PL. Recommendations for development of resilience-based state-and-transition models. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2008;61(4):359–67.Google Scholar
Folke, C, Carpenter, S, Walker, B, Scheffer, M, Elmqvist, T, Gunderson, L, et al. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution & Systematics. 2004;35:557–81.Google Scholar
Elmendorf, SC, Henry, GHR, Hollister, RD, Björk, RG, Boulanger-Lapointe, N, Cooper, EJ, et al. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nature Climate Change. 2012;2(6):453.Google Scholar
Walker, B, Holling, CS, Carpenter, SR, Kinzig, A. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society. 2004;9(2):5.Google Scholar
Kayler, ZE, De Boeck, HJ, Fatichi, S, Grünzweig, JM, Merbold, L, Beier, C, et al. Experiments to confront the environmental extremes of climate change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2015;13(4):219–25.Google Scholar
Smith, MD, Knapp, AK, Collins, SL. A framework for assessing ecosystem dynamics in response to chronic resource alterations induced by global change. Ecology. 2009;90(12):3279–89.Google Scholar
Westoby, M, Walker, B, Noy-Meir, I. Opportunistic management for rangelands not at equilibrium. Journal of Range Management. 1989;42(4):266–74.Google Scholar
D’Odorico, P, Bhattachan, A, Davis, KF, Ravi, S, Runyan, CW. Global desertification: drivers and feedbacks. Advances in Water Resources. 2013;51:326–44.Google Scholar
Peters, DPC, Yao, J, Sala, OE, Anderson, JP. Directional climate change and potential reversal of desertification in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Global Change Biology. 2012;18(1):151–63.Google Scholar
Ratajczak, Z, Churchill, A, Ladwig, L, Collins, SL. Effects of an extreme climate event and wildfire on tallgrass prairie vegetation. 2018 (unpublished).Google Scholar
Rondeau, RJ, Pearson, KT, Kelso, S. Vegetation response in a Colorado grassland–shrub community to extreme drought: 1999–2010. American Midlands Naturalist. 2013;170(1):1425.Google Scholar
Abatzoglou, JT, Kolden, CA. Climate change in western US deserts: potential for increased wildfire and invasive annual grasses. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2011;64(5):471–8.Google Scholar
Brooks, ML, D’Antonio, CM, Richardson, DM, Grace, JB, Keeley, JE, DiTomaso, JM, et al. Effects of invasive alien plants on fire regimes. Bioscience. 2004;54(7):677–88.Google Scholar
D’Odorico, P, He, Y, Collins, S, De Wekker, SFJ, Engel, V, Fuentes, JD. Vegetation–microclimate feedbacks in woodland–grassland ecotones. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2013;22(4):364–79.Google Scholar
Gherardi, LA, Sala, OE. Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass- and increases shrub-productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2015;112(41):12,735–40.Google Scholar
Holmgren, M, Lin, CY, Murillo, JE, Nieuwenhuis, A, Penninkhof, J, Sanders, N, et al. Positive shrub–tree interactions facilitate woody encroachment in boreal peatlands. Journal of Ecology. 2015;103(1):5866.Google Scholar
Walker, BH, Ludwig, D, Holling, CS, Peterman, RM. Stability of semi-arid savanna grazing systems. Journal of Ecology. 1981:473–98.Google Scholar
Bonachela, JA, Pringle, RM, Sheffer, E, Coverdale, TC, Guyton, JA, Caylor, KK, et al. Termite mounds can increase the robustness of dryland ecosystems to climatic change. Science. 2015;347(6222):651–5.Google Scholar
Borer, ET, Seabloom, EW, Gruner, DS, Harpole, WS, Hillebrand, H, Lind, EM, et al. Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation. Nature. 2014;508(7497):517.Google Scholar
Dekker, SC, Rietkerk, M, Bierkens, MFP. Coupling microscale vegetation–soil water and macroscale vegetation–precipitation feedbacks in semiarid ecosystems. Global Change Biology. 2007;13(3):671–8.Google Scholar
Van Langevelde, F, Van De Vijver, CADM, Kumar, L, Van De Koppel, J, De Ridder, N, Van Andel J, et al. Effects of fire and herbivory on the stability of savanna ecosystems. Ecology. 2003;84(2):337–50.Google Scholar
Tilman, D. Resource competition and community structure. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 1982.Google Scholar
Ratajczak, Z, D’odorico, P, Collins, SL, Bestelmeyer, BT, Isbell, FI, Nippert, JB. The interactive effects of press/pulse intensity and duration on regime shifts at multiple scales. Ecological Monographs. 2017;87(2):198218.Google Scholar
Nippert, JB, Wieme, RA, Ocheltree, TW, Craine, JM. Root characteristics of C4 grasses limit reliance on deep soil water in tallgrass prairie. Plant and Soil. 2012;355(1–2):385–94.Google Scholar
Dalgleish, HJ, Hartnett, DC. Below‐ground bud banks increase along a precipitation gradient of the North American Great Plains: a test of the meristem limitation hypothesis. New Phytologist. 2006;171(1):81–9.Google Scholar
Gibson, DJ. Grasses and grassland ecology. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2009.Google Scholar
Chesson, P. Mechanisms of maintenance of species diversity. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. 2000;31(1):343–66.Google Scholar
February, EC, Higgins, SI, Bond, WJ, Swemmer, L. Influence of competition and rainfall manipulation on the growth responses of savanna trees and grasses. Ecology. 2013;94(5):1155–64.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Holmgren, M, Hirota, M, Van Nes, EH, Scheffer, M. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover. Nature Climate Change. 2013;3(8):755.Google Scholar
Collins, SL, Belnap, J, Grimm, NB, Rudgers, J, Dahm, CN, D’Odorico, P, et al. A multiscale, hierarchical model of pulse dynamics in arid-land ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution & Systematics. 2014;45:397419.Google Scholar
Grime, JP. Plant strategies, vegetation processes, and ecosystem properties. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons; 2006.Google Scholar
Petraitis, P. Multiple stable states in natural ecosystems. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2013.Google Scholar
Ratajczak, Z, D’Odorico, P, Nippert, JB, Collins, SL, Brunsell, NA, Ravi, S. Changes in spatial variance during a grassland to shrubland state transition. Journal of Ecology. 2017;105(3):750–60.Google Scholar
Bond, WJ. What limits trees in C4 grasslands and savannas? Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution & Systematics. 2008;39:641–59.Google Scholar
Murphy, BP, Bowman, DMJS. What controls the distribution of tropical forest and savanna? Ecology Letters. 2012;15(7):748–58.Google Scholar
Staver, AC, Archibald, S, Levin, SA. The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science. 2011;334(6053):230–2.Google Scholar
Ehleringer, JR, Cerling, TE, Helliker, BR. C4 photosynthesis, atmospheric CO2, and climate. Oecologia. 1997;112(3):285–99.Google Scholar
Westerling, AL. Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences. 2016;371(1696):20150178.Google Scholar
Higgins, SI, Scheiter, S. Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally. Nature. 2012;488(7410):209.Google Scholar
Kulmatiski, A, Beard, KH. Woody plant encroachment facilitated by increased precipitation intensity. Nature Climate Change. 2013;3(9):833.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ilga, C, Dziock, F, Foeckler, F, Follner, K, Gerisch, M, Glaeser, J, et al. Long‐term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands. Ecology. 2008;89(9):2392–8.Google Scholar
Noy-Meir, I. Stability of grazing systems: an application of predator–prey graphs. Journal of Ecology. 1975;63(2):459–81.Google Scholar
Peters, DPC, Lugo, AE, Chapin, FS, Pickett, STA, Duniway, M, Rocha, AV, et al. Cross‐system comparisons elucidate disturbance complexities and generalities. Ecosphere. 2011;2(7):126.Google Scholar
Wookey, PA, Aerts, R, Bardgett, RD, Baptist, F, Bråthen, KA, Cornelissen, JHC, et al. Ecosystem feedbacks and cascade processes: understanding their role in the responses of Arctic and alpine ecosystems to environmental change. Global Change Biology. 2009;15(5):1153–72.Google Scholar
Villa Martín, P, Bonachela, JA, Levin, SA, Muñoz, MA. Eluding catastrophic shifts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2015;112(15):E1828–36.Google Scholar
Bestelmeyer, BT, Ellison, AM, Fraser, WR, Gorman, KB, Holbrook, SJ, Laney, CM, et al. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems. Ecosphere. 2011;2(12):126.Google Scholar
Brandt, JS, Haynes, MA, Kuemmerle, T, Waller, DM, Radeloff, VC. Regime shift on the roof of the world: Alpine meadows converting to shrublands in the southern Himalayas. Biological Conservation. 2013;158:116–27.Google Scholar
Arnone, JA, Jasoni, RL, Lucchesi, AJ, Larsen, JD, Leger, EA, Sherry, RA, et al. A climatically extreme year has large impacts on C4 species in tallgrass prairie ecosystems but only minor effects on species richness and other plant functional groups. Journal of Ecology. 2011;99(3):678–88.Google Scholar
Bagchi, S, Briske, DD, Bestelmeyer, BT, Wu, BX. Assessing resilience and state‐transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush–steppe. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2013;50(5):1131–41.Google Scholar
Bagchi, S, Briske, DD, Wu, XB, McClaran, MP, Bestelmeyer, BT, Fernández-Giménez, ME. Empirical assessment of state‐and‐transition models with a long‐term vegetation record from the Sonoran Desert. Ecological Applications. 2012;22(2):400–11.Google Scholar
Buitenwerf, R, Swemmer, AM, Peel, MJS. Long‐term dynamics of herbaceous vegetation structure and composition in two African savanna reserves. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2011;48(1):238–46.Google Scholar
Fuhlendorf, SD, Briske, DD, Smeins, FE. Herbaceous vegetation change in variable rangeland environments: the relative contribution of grazing and climatic variability. Applied Vegetation Science. 2001;4(2):177–88.Google Scholar
Grime, JP, Brown, VK, Thompson, K, Masters, GJ, Hillier, SH, Clarke, IP, et al. The response of two contrasting limestone grasslands to simulated climate change. Science. 2000;289(5480):762–5.Google Scholar
Grime, JP, Fridley, JD, Askew, AP, Thompson, K, Hodgson, JG, Bennett, CR. Long-term resistance to simulated climate change in an infertile grassland. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2008;105(29):10,028–32.Google Scholar
Hobbs, RJ, Yates, S, Mooney, HA. Long‐term data reveal complex dynamics in grassland in relation to climate and disturbance. Ecological Monographs. 2007;77(4):545–68.Google Scholar
Kreyling, J, Jurasinski, G, Grant, K, Retzer, V, Jentsch, A, Beierkuhnlein, C. Winter warming pulses affect the development of planted temperate grassland and dwarf-shrub heath communities. Plant Ecology & Diversity. 2011;4(1):1321.Google Scholar
Jägerbrand, AK, Alatalo, JM, Chrimes, D, Molau, U. Plant community responses to 5 years of simulated climate change in meadow and heath ecosystems at a subarctic–alpine site. Oecologia. 2009;161(3):601–10.Google Scholar
Porensky, LM, Derner, JD, Augustine, DJ, Milchunas, DG. Plant community composition after 75 yr of sustained grazing intensity treatments in shortgrass steppe. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2017;70(4):456–64.Google Scholar
Tilman, D. Biodiversity: population versus ecosystem stability. Ecology. 1996;77(2):350–63.Google Scholar
Stampfli, A, Zeiter, M. Plant regeneration directs changes in grassland composition after extreme drought: a 13‐year study in southern Switzerland. Journal of Ecology. 2004;92(4):568–76.Google Scholar
Hoover, DL, Knapp, AK, Smith, MD. Resistance and resilience of a grassland ecosystem to climate extremes. Ecology. 2014;95(9):2646–56.Google Scholar
Jentsch, A, Kreyling, J, Elmer, M, Gellesch, E, Glaser, B, Grant, K, et al. Climate extremes initiate ecosystem‐regulating functions while maintaining productivity. Journal of Ecology. 2011;99(3):689702.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koerner, SE, Collins, SL. Interactive effects of grazing, drought, and fire on grassland plant communities in North America and South Africa. Ecology. 2014;95(1):98109.Google Scholar
Larios, L, Aicher, RJ, Suding, KN. Effect of propagule pressure on recovery of a California grassland after an extreme disturbance. Journal of Vegetation Science. 2013;24(6):1043–52.Google Scholar
Milchunas, DG, Lauenroth, WK. Inertia in plant community structure: state changes after cessation of nutrient‐enrichment stress. Ecological Applications. 1995;5(2):452–8.Google Scholar
Polyakov, VO, Nearing, MA, Stone, JJ, Hamerlynck, EP, Nichols, MH, Holifield, Collins, CD, et al. Runoff and erosional responses to a drought‐induced shift in a desert grassland community composition. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeoscience. 2010;115(G4).Google Scholar
Sternberg, M, Golodets, C, Gutman, M, Perevolotsky, A, Kigel, J, Henkin, Z. No precipitation legacy effects on above‐ground net primary production and species diversity in grazed Mediterranean grassland: a 21‐year experiment. Journal of Vegetation Science. 2017;28(2):260–9.Google Scholar
Sternberg, M, Golodets, C, Gutman, M, Perevolotsky, A, Ungar, ED, Kigel, J, et al. Testing the limits of resistance: a 19‐year study of Mediterranean grassland response to grazing regimes. Global Change Biology. 2015;21(5):1939–50.Google Scholar
Gibbens, RP, McNeely, RP, Havstad, KM, Beck, RF, Nolen, B. Vegetation changes in the Jornada Basin from 1858 to 1998. Journal of Arid Environments. 2005;61(4):651–68.Google Scholar
Kennedy, AD, Biggs, H, Zambatis, N. Relationship between grass species richness and ecosystem stability in Kruger National Park, South Africa. African Journal of Ecology. 2003;41(2):131–40.Google Scholar
Yao, J, Peters, DPC, Havstad, KM, Gibbens, RP, Herrick, JE. Multi-scale factors and long-term responses of Chihuahuan Desert grasses to drought. Landscape Ecology. 2006;21(8):1217–31.Google Scholar
Isbell, F, Tilman, D, Polasky, S, Binder, S, Hawthorne, P. Low biodiversity state persists two decades after cessation of nutrient enrichment. Ecology Letters. 2013;16(4):454–60.Google Scholar
Park, HS, Sohn, BJ. Recent trends in changes of vegetation over East Asia coupled with temperature and rainfall variations. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmosphere. 2010;115(D14).Google Scholar
Harsch, MA, Hulme, PE, McGlone, MS, Duncan, RP. Are treelines advancing? A global meta‐analysis of treeline response to climate warming. Ecology Letters. 2009;12(10):1040–9.Google Scholar
Dove, MR. Climate change and the politics and science of traditional grassland management. In: Gibson, DJ, Newman, JA, editors. Grasslands and climate change. Ecological reviews. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2019. pp. 274–90.Google Scholar
Dougill, AJ, Fraser, EDG, Reed, MS. Anticipating vulnerability to climate change in dryland pastoral systems: using dynamic systems models for the Kalahari. Ecology and Society. 2010;15(2):17.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×