What will happen to social transfers in the Second World, those countries of Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Asia that were previously under communist rule? What will happen to social transfers in the Third World if it starts to catch up to the OECD countries in living standards? What will happen to those Third World countries that will fall further behind?

Following the historical patterns of social transfers in what are now the industrialized OECD countries actually gives clear insights into the likely social transfer trends in other parts of the world. There are both reliable similarities and steady differences between the earlier history and the paths now being followed by non-OECD countries. Granted, countries and regions follow their own trajectories. Yet it turns out that there are simple consistent patterns in how today's reforming and developing economies differ from the earlier history at comparable levels of development and comparable stages of population aging. This chapter will suggest the following:

1. The same forces featured in Chapter 7 will continue to drive global trends in social transfers for the next half-century. Countries' social transfers, like their commitment to public schooling, will depend mainly on their income growth, their population aging, and the fullness of their democracy. The Robin Hood paradox will continue to hold in the year 2050: The countries that still spend less than 10 percent of GDP on transfers, and little on schools, will be the troubled countries where poverty and inequality call most loudly for such social spending.

2. […]