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Introduction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 September 2009

Vítor Gaspar
Affiliation:
European Central Bank, Frankfurt
Otmar Issing
Affiliation:
European Central Bank, Frankfurt
Oreste Tristani
Affiliation:
European Central Bank, Frankfurt
David Vestin
Affiliation:
European Central Bank, Frankfurt
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Summary

Uncertainty is a pervasive fact of life. Many decisions have to be taken with limited information, imperfect knowledge, in an ever-changing environment.

The decision to purchase any consumption good is always taken based on limited information about, for example, the distribution of prices across retailers. One can cross-check prices from a couple of small shops and large retailers, but very quickly the costs of gathering and processing new information become prohibitively high. Quoting F. H. Knight, “it is evident that the rational thing to do is to be irrational, where deliberation and estimation cost more than they are worth.”

Imperfect knowledge also characterizes most important decisions in life. The choice of a university degree course is often made while ignoring one's own chances of actually attaining the degree, the impact of the degree on future job opportunities or the relative merits of the degree when compared with alternatives.

A by-product of imperfect knowledge is that evaluations of future outcomes may be formed in ways that are not necessarily correct. Different people may have different perceptions on the best degree and university. In turn, people's perceptions may affect outcomes, so that “the truth” will not be independent of the learning process by which perceptions are formed. To continue the university analogy, perceptions about the least useful degrees may change over time.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

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  • Introduction
  • Vítor Gaspar, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Otmar Issing, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, David Vestin, European Central Bank, Frankfurt
  • Book: Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy
  • Online publication: 22 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492426.001
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  • Introduction
  • Vítor Gaspar, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Otmar Issing, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, David Vestin, European Central Bank, Frankfurt
  • Book: Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy
  • Online publication: 22 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492426.001
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Introduction
  • Vítor Gaspar, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Otmar Issing, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, David Vestin, European Central Bank, Frankfurt
  • Book: Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy
  • Online publication: 22 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492426.001
Available formats
×