Whereas Chapter 4 was primarily concerned with changes in labour demand that have contributed to variations in the unemployed caseload, the focus in this chapter is on labour supply. It appears that, at certain points over the last 30 years, simple changes in demography have conspired to exacerbate the mismatch between the demand for and supply of labour.

Table 5.1 reveals that the working-age population grew by 13% between 1971 and 1998. Moreover, the growth in the number of people in the early part of their prime working years (namely between 30 and 44 years of age) was, at 36%, very much greater. The passage of this cohort through the labour market exacerbated the problems created by the downturn of the 1980s, since a subset of this cohort would have been aged 15-19 in 1981 when the recession began to bite. Table 5.1 confirms this, showing that the number of people in this age range increased by 23% between 1971 and 1981, while the number aged 20-29 increased by just 2%. Clearly a large cohort of new labour market entrants is likely to be much at risk of unemployment, even in the absence of a downturn in the economy, such as that which occurred in the 1980s.

Large cohorts also tend to pose significant constraints on the chances of career progression and wage growth through promotion for members of the cohort and those cohorts that follow later. This labour market cohort has, therefore, been doubly disadvantaged, and may face further difficulties in the immediate future, as large numbers of people approach the labour market vulnerability associated with late working life.