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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 17 February 2022
Economic forecasters ought to be thankful for pollsters, otherwise they might look very bad indeed. The story that has frequently been repeated is that a recession was forecast in the event of a vote to leave the European Union and because there had been no recession, economic forecasters had let us down. This story is not quite right, for example, in May 2016 the National Institute Economic Review simply argued that growth would be broadly unaffected in 2016 by a vote to leave the European Union and was projected to be almost 1 percentage point lower than the baseline in 2017; a baseline which assumed that the United Kingdom would stay in the European Union. The accuracy of the central forecast for 2016 was reasonable and we all watched carefully to see what then happened.
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