Vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation by sectors and systems

Mohan Munasinghe; Rob Swart

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511622984.008

6 - Vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation by sectors and systems

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 25 December 2009

Mohan Munasinghe and

Rob Swart

Show author details

Mohan Munasinghe: Affiliation:
World Bank, Washington DC
Rob Swart: Affiliation:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, The Netherlands

Book contents

Get access

Summary

Natural and human systems are exposed to variations in climate. These include changes in average range and variability of temperature and precipitation as well as the frequency and severity of weather events. Some indirect effects of climate change include sea-level rise, changes in soil moisture and land and water conditions, changes in frequency of fire and pest infestation, and the distribution of disease vectors and hosts. The potential for a system to sustain adverse impacts is determined by its capacity to adapt to the changes.

Hydrology and water resources

Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources

Water stress is becoming an apparent problem in many parts of the world. The amount of water available per person is decreasing, whereas the ratio of volume of water withdrawn to volume of water potentially available is increasing (Arnell 1999; 2000), (see Figure 6.1).

This water stress is caused by many socioeconomic and natural changes unrelated to climate change, but is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Approximately one-third (1.7 billion) of the population of the world presently live in countries that are water-stressed, i.e. using more than 20 per cent of their renewable water supply. This number is expected to increase to 5 billion by 2025.

Water, once revered for it's life-giving properties, has become a commodity. Throughout the world, human use of water has already led to dried-up and polluted rivers, lakes, and groundwater resources. Potable water is becoming increasingly scarce.

Information

Type: Chapter
Information: Primer on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Facts, Policy Analysis, and Applications
, pp. 207 - 230

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511622984.008 [Opens in a new window]

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Print publication year: 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Book purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Anderson, D. R. (2000) Catastrophe insurance and compensation: remembering basic principles. CPCU Journal, 53(2), 76–89Google Scholar

Anderson, D. M., Cembella, A. D. and Hallegraeff, G. M. eds., (1998) Physiological ecology of harmful algal blooms. In Proceedings of NATO Advanced Study Institute, Bermuda, 1996. Berlin: Springer-Verlag

Ando, M., Uchiyama, I. and Ono, M. (1998) Impacts on human health. In S. Nihioka, and H. Harasawa, eds., Global Warming: The Potential Impact on Japan. Tokyo: Springer-Verlag, pp. 203–13CrossRef

Ando, M., Kobayashi, I. N., Kawahara, I., Asanuma, S. and Liang, C. K. (1998) Impacts of heat stress on hyperthermic disorders and heat stroke. Global Environmental Research, 2, 111–20Google Scholar

Antle, J. M. (1996) Methodological issues in assessing potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 80, 67–85CrossRef Google Scholar

Arnell, N. W. (1999) Climate change and global water resources. Global Environmental Change, 9, S31–49CrossRef Google Scholar

Arnell, N. W. (2000) Impact of climate change on global water resources: Vol. 2. Report to Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. Southampton: University of Southampton

Bergstrom, S. and Carlsson, B. (1993) Hydrology of the Baltic Basin. Swedish Metereological and Hydrological Institute Reports. Hydrology, 7, 21Google Scholar

Bird, E. C. F. (1993) Submerging Coasts: The Effects of Rising Sea Level on Coastal Environment. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons

Bowes, G., Vu, J. C. V., Hussain, M. W., Pennanen, A. H. and Allen, L. H. Jr. (1996) An overview on how rubisco and carbohydrate metabolism may be regulated at elevated atmospheric (CO2) and temperature. Agricultural and Food Science in Finland, 5, 261–70Google Scholar

Cane, M. A., Clement, A. C., Kaplan, A., Kushir, Y., Pozdayakov, R., Seager, S. and Zebaik, E. (1997) Twentieth century sea surface temperature trends. Science, 275, 957–60CrossRef Google Scholar PubMed

Casella, E., Soussana, J. F. and Loiseau, P. (1996) Long-term effects of CO2 enrichment and temperature increase on a temperate grass sward, I: productivity and water use. Plant and Soil, 182, 83–99CrossRef Google Scholar

Cohen, S. J. (1997) Mackenzie Basin Impact Study Final Report. Downsview ON: Environment Canada

Dallimore, S. R., Wolfe, S. and Solomon, S. M. (1996) Influence of ground ice and permafrost on coastal evolution, Richards Island, Beaufort Sea Coast, NWT. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 33, 664–75CrossRef Google Scholar

Dettmers, J. M. and Stein, R. A. (1996) Quantifying linkages among gizzard shad, ‘zooplankton, and phytoplankton in reservoirs. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 125, 27–412.3.CO;2>CrossRef Google Scholar

EIA (1998) International Energy Outlook. DOE/EIA-0484(98). Washington: US Department of Energy. Energy Information Administration

FAO (1999) The State of Food Insecurity in the World 1999. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Forbes, D. L., Shaw, J. and Taylor, R. B. (1997) Climate change impacts in the coastal zone of Atlantic Canada. In J. Abraham, T. Canavan and R. Shaw, eds., Climate Variability and Climate Change in Atlantic Canada. Ottawa: Environment Canada. 6, 51–66

Frisk, T., Bilaletdin, A., Kallio, K. and Saura, M. (1997) Modeling the effects of climate change on lake euthrophication. Boreal Environment Research, 2, 53–67Google Scholar

Gitay, H., Brown, S., Easterling, W., Jallow, B., Antle, J., Apps, M., Beamish, R., Chapin, T., Cramer, W., Frangi, J., Laine, J., Lin, E., Magnuson, J., Noble, I., Price, J., Prowse, T., Root, T., Schulze, E., Sirotenko, O., Sohngen, B. and Soussana, J. (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services. In Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptations, J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken and K. White, (eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Gubler, D. J. (1998) Climate change: implications for human health. Health and Environment Digest, 12, 54–55Google Scholar

Gubler, D. J. and Meltzer, M. (1999) The impact of dengue/dengue hemorrharic fever in the developing world. In K. Maramorosch, F. A. Murphy and A. J. Shatkin, eds., Advances in Virus Research, Vol. 53. San Diego: Academic Press, pp. 35–70

Hardoy, J. E., Mitlin, D. and Satterthwaite, D. (2000) Environmental Problems in an Urbanising World: Local Solutions for City Problems in Africa, Asia and Latin America. London: Earthscan Publications

Horne A. J. and Goldman, C. R. (1994) Limnology (2nd edn.). New York: McGraw-Hill

IFRC (1998) World Disaster Report 1998. New York: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and Oxford: Oxford University Press

Kallio, K., Rekolainen, S., Ekholm, P., Granlund, K., Laine, Y., Johnsson, H., and Hoffman, M. (1997) Impacts of climatic change on agricultural nutrient losses in Finland. Boreal Environment Research, 2, 33–52Google Scholar

Kunkel, K. E., Pielke, R. A. Jr., and Changnon, S. A. (1999) Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80(6), 1077–982.0.CO;2>CrossRef Google Scholar

Kunreuther, H. (1998) Insurability conditions and the supply of coverage. In H. Kunreuther, and R. Roth, eds., Paying the Price: The Status and Role of Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the United States. Washington: Joseph Henry Press, pp. 17–50

Langford, I. H. and Bentham, G. (1995) The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales. International Journal of Biometeorology, 38, 141–7CrossRef Google Scholar PubMed

Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P. and Stephens, C. (2000) Warming of the world ocean. Science, 287, 2225–9CrossRef Google Scholar

Magnuson, J. J., Webster, K. E., Assel, R. A., Bowser, C. J., Dillon, P. J., Eaton, J. G., Evans, H. E., Fee, E. J., Hall, R. I., Mortsch, L. R., Schindler, D. W. and Quinn, F. H. (1997) Potential effects of climate change on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian shield region. Hydrological Processes, 11, 825–713.0.CO;2-G>CrossRef Google Scholar

McLean, R. F., Tsyban, A., Burkett, V., Burkett, V., Codignotto, J. O., Forbes, D. L., Mimura, N., Beamish, R. J. and Ittekkot, V. (2001) Coastal zones and marine ecosystems. In J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken and K. White, eds., Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

McGranahan G. and Satterthwaite, D. (2000) Environmental health or sustainability? Reconciling the brown and green agendas in urban development. In C. Pugh, ed., Sustainable Cities in Developing Countries. London: Earthscan Publications, pp. 73–90

McMichael, A. J., Haines, A., Sloof, R. and Kovats, S. eds., (1996) Climate Change and Human Health. (WHO/EHG/96.7). Geneva: World Health Organization

Menne, B., Pond, K., Noji, E. K. and Bertollini, R. (1999) Floods and Public Health Consequences, Prevention and Control Measures. (UNECE/MP. WAT/SEM.2/1999/22). Rome: World Health Organization European Centre for Environment and Health

Minns, C. K. and Moore, J. E. (1995) Factors limiting the distributions of Ontario's freshwater fishes: the role of climate and other variables, and the potential impacts of climate change. In R. J. Beamish, ed., Climate Change and Northern Fish Populations. Canada: Fish Aquatic Sciences, pp. 137–160

Mirza, M. Q., Warrick, R. A., Ericksen, N. J. and Kenny, G. J. (1998) Trends and persistence in precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Basins in South Asia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 43, 845–58CrossRef Google Scholar

Murdoch, P. S., Baron, J. S. and Miller, T. L. (2000) Potential effects of climate change on surface water quality in North America. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 36, 347–66CrossRef Google Scholar

Murray, C. J. L. (1994) Quantifying the burden of disease: the technical basis for disability-adjusted life years. Bulletin of WHO, 72, 429–45Google Scholar PubMed

Murray C. J. L. and Lopez, A. D., eds. (1996) The Global Burden of Disease: Global Burden of Disease and Injury Series, Vol. 1. Harvard School of Public Health. Boston: Harvard University Press

Noji, E., ed., (1997) The Public Health Consequences of Disasters. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press

Parry, M., Fischer, C., Livermore, M., Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A. (1999) Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change, 9, S51–67CrossRef Google Scholar

Patz, J. A., McGeehin, M. A., Bernard, S. M., Ebi, K. L., Epstein, P. R., Grambsch, A., Gubler, D. J. and Reiter, P. (2000) The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the US National Assessment. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108, 367–76CrossRef Google Scholar

Pielke, R. A. Jr. and Downton, M. W. (2000) Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in the United States, 1932–1997. Journal of Climate, 13(20), 3625–372.0.CO;2>CrossRef Google Scholar

Pinstrup-Andersen, P. and Pandya-Lorch, R. (1998) Food security and sustainable use of natural resources: a 2020 vision. Ecological Economics, 26, 1–10CrossRef Google Scholar

Reilly, J. (1996) Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation. In R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss, eds., Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 429–67

Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A. (1998) The use of crop models for international climate change impact assessment. In G. Y. Tusji, G. Hoogrnboom and P. K. Thorton, eds., Understanding Options for Agriculture Production. Dordrecht: Kluwer, pp. 267–92CrossRef

Rothrock, D. A., Yu, Y. and Maykut, G. A. (1999) Thinning of the Artic sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 3469–72CrossRef Google Scholar

Schindler, D. W. (1997) Widespread effects of climatic warming on freshwater ecosystems in North America. Hydrological Processes, 11, 825–713.0.CO;2-5>CrossRef Google Scholar

Shiklomanov, A. I., Lammers, R. B., Peterson, B. J. and Vorosmarty, C. (2000) The dynamics of river water flow in the Artic Ocean. In E. L. Lewis, E. P. Jones, P. Lemke, T. D. Prowse and P. Wadhams, eds, The Freshwater Budget of the Artic Ocean. Dordrecht: Kluwer

Shiklomanov, A. I. (1998) Assessment of water resources and water availability in the World. Background Report for the Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute

Smith, J. B., Huq, S. Lenhart, S. Mata, L. J., Nemesova, I. and Toure, S. (1996) Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Interim Results from the U.S. Country Studies Program. Dordrecht and Boston: Kluwer

Solomon, S. M., Forbes, D. L. and Kierstead, B. (1994) Coastal Impacts of Climate Change: Beaufort Sea Erosion Study. Downsview ON: Canadian Climate Centre

Springer, A. M. (1998) Is it all cc? Why marine bird and mammal populations fluctuate in the North Pacific. In G. Holloway, P. Muller and D. Henderson, eds., Biotic Impacts of Extratropical Climate Variability in the Pacific. Honolulu: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Hawaii, pp. 109–20

Stattersfield, A. J., Crosby, M. J., Long, A. J. and Wege, D. C. (1998) Endemic Bird Areas of the World: Priorities for Biodiversity Conservation. Birdlife Conservation Series No. 7. Cambridge: Birdlife International

Tester, P. A. (1994) Harmful marine phytoplankton and shellfish toxicity potential consequences of climate change. Annals of New York Academy of Sciences, 740, 69–76CrossRef Google Scholar PubMed

UNEP (2000) Global Environmental Outlook 2000. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Program

Vellinga, P., Mills, E., Berz, G., Bouwer, L., Huq, S., Kozak, L. A., Palutikof, J., Schantenbächer, B. and Soler, G. (2001) Insurance and other financial services. In J. J. McCarthy, F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken and K. S. White, eds., Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press

Ware, D. M. (1995) A century and a half of change in the climate of the North East Pacific. Fisheries Oceanography, 4, 267–77CrossRef Google Scholar

White, R. and Etkin, D. (1997) Climate change, extreme events and the Canadian insurance industry. Natural Hazards, 16, 135–63CrossRef Google Scholar

WHO (1984) Environmental Health Criteria 37: Aquatic (Marine and Freshwater) Biotoxins. Geneva: World Health Organization

Wilson, E. O. (1992) The Diversity of Life. New York: Norton

Yan, N. D., Keller, W., Scully, N. M., Lean, D. R. S. and Dillon, P. J. (1996) Increased UV-B penetration in lakes owing to drought-induced acification. Nature, 381, 141–3CrossRef Google Scholar

Young, I. (1999) Seasonal variability of the global ocean wind and wave climate. International Journal of Climatology, 19, 931–503.0.CO;2-O>CrossRef Google Scholar

Accessibility standard: Unknown

Accessibility compliance for the PDF of this book is currently unknown and may be updated in the future.