Published online by Cambridge University Press: aN Invalid Date NaN
This chapter explains how to estimate population parameters from data. We introduce random sampling, an approach that yields accurate estimates from limited data. We then define the bias and the standard error, which quantify the average error of an estimator and how much it varies, respectively. In addition, we derive deviation bounds and use them to prove the law of large numbers, which states that averaging many independent samples from a distribution yields an accurate estimate of its mean. An important consequence is that random sampling provides a precise estimate of means and proportions. However, we caution that this is not necessarily the case, if the data contain extreme values. Next, we discuss the central limit theorem (CLT), according to which averages of independent quantities tend to be Gaussian. We again provide a cautionary tale, warning that this does not hold in the absence of independence. Then, we explain how to use the CLT to build confidence intervals which quantify the uncertainty of estimates obtained from finite data. Finally, we introduce the bootstrap, a popular computational technique to estimate standard errors and build confidence intervals.
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