Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-5b777bbd6c-sbgtn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-06-19T21:55:10.620Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

10 - Hypothesis Testing

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 June 2025

Carlos Fernandez-Granda
Affiliation:
New York University
Get access

Summary

This chapter presents hypothesis testing which is used to evaluate whether the available data provide sufficient evidence to support a certain hypothesis. The main idea is to play devil's advocate and assume a null hypothesis, which contradicts our hypothesis of interest. We explain how to use parametric modeling to implement this idea, and define the p-value. We prove that thresholding the p-value controls the probability of false positives. In addition, we define the power of a test, which quantifies the test's ability to identify positive findings. Next, we show how to perform hypothesis testing without a parametric model, focusing on the permutation test. Then, we discuss multiple testing, a setting where many tests are performed simultaneously. Finally, we provide three reasons why hypothesis testing should not be used as the only stamp of approval for scientific discoveries. First, hypothesis testing does not necessarily identify causal effects; it is complementary to causal inference. Second, small p-values do not imply practical significance. Third, relying on p-values to validate findings produces a strong incentive to cherry-pick results.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2025

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Book purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×