The geopolitics of natural resources are shaped by the growing demand and the more slowly growing supplies. In recent decades the demand for fossil fuels, land and mineral resources has grown exponentially as a result of drivers such as population growth, industrialization and urbanization. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, 2011: 5-8), energy demand will increase by 51% by 2035, most of it from non-OECD countries. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization expects that food production will need to increase up to 70% by 2050 to meet the demand from the world's growing population (OECD/FAO, 2009). The demand for minerals is also expected to increase at a rate of 1% per year, and by 2050 will be 60% higher than it is today (Kesler, 2007).

The demand for natural resources fell temporarily in 2007 as a result of the financial crisis. Worsening economic conditions slowed the demand for energy resources. Lower energy prices also reduced the demand for biofuels and credit limitations reduced the trade in agricultural commodities. Nonetheless, demand has recovered more strongly than expected, especially from the rapidly developing emerging economies. Shortly after the worst dip, demand returned to pre-crisis levels. The resulting imbalance between demand and supply has led to tight mineral commodity markets and an unprecedented boom in the prices of both abiotic and biotic resources.

A classification of challenges

The environmental and social challenges that face society at large and industry in particular can be classified in various ways. Here we use a categorization of resource-related challenges that has been inspired by two recent reports of the International Panel on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources (UNEP, 2010; 2011) and a set of indicators suggested by Giljum et al. (2009) for measuring eco-efficiency, which classifies resource uses and the related constraints according to the main categories identified in an economywide material f low analysis (MFA). From the recent trends in global resource extraction shown in Figure 2.1, it can be seen that biotic resources, construction minerals and fossil fuels now make up close to 80% of all materials extracted for human use, excluding water. Note that in this analysis, as well as the typical resources identified in the MFA, we also include water and land use.