He had famously asked, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” He had known the answer would be “No.” He had said he could do better. Now in April 1982, Ronald Reagan was in trouble. After a year of relatively good outcomes in 1981, the U.S. economy came full circle, from stagnation to modest growth and now crashing into full-scale recession. Reagan's early approval ratings had been strong, often in the upper sixties. He had averaged upper fifties. Now as the economy started to slide, so too did Reagan's standing. It was low fifties in the fall of 1981 and dropped below the 50% mark briefly in November. After one rebound, it went below 50% and stayed. By April he was at 43%. It was not as low as he would go.

Ronald Reagan surely knew the insider's rule of thumb about approval and reelection: below 50%, you lose. Not precise and not based on many cases, the rule of thumb nonetheless had a perfect track record. Voters and consumers had been pessimistic in October 1980, when Reagan had asked the “Are you better off?” query. Now their pessimism had sunk lower still. Production was declining. The number of unemployed had passed ten million. After July of his first year in office, when the unemployment rate stood at 7.2%, it began to rise, continuing upward every single month. It was reaching near a modern high point at 9.3% in April, from which it would rise into unknown double-digit territory in September. Reagan approval marched in counterstep. It reached a new low of 41% in July and August 1982. After a plateau, it fell further, to 37 in early January of 1983, to 35 in late January. Only two modern presidents had ever been that low, Richard Nixon, who soon thereafter resigned, and Jimmy Carter, whose low standing had helped Reagan assist him into early retirement.

Reagan's Democratic critics in the U.S. Senate had little reason to be gleeful over his troubles. They too were experiencing unkind reactions from the public.