Chapter summary

This chapter considers the process of transition from both a political perspective and a technical perspective. The political perspective starts with an appraisal of three alternative scenarios for civilization and goes on to consider the types of policies that will be required if the current economic model is to become sustainable. The technical perspective offers a very brief summary of some of the technological changes that will support the rapid transition to a sustainable society.

Political transition

History teaches us that civilizations grow, flourish and then decline. The Aztecs, the Roman Empire, Chinese dynasties, the Mongol empire and the trading empires of various European countries have all dominated regions of the world for a while and then declined. The challenge facing our modern global civilization is that unless we evolve to a sustainable society we not only risk the collapse of our modern civilization but we jeopardize the survival of humanity.

Over the next few years, we need to address six primary factors that will determine the future of humanity:

• • Population.

• • Economy.

• • Environment.

• • Equity/society.

• • Technology.

• • Conflict.

These factors were identified in a book, The Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, by Paul Raskin et al (2002). The book considers whether it is possible to achieve the Great Transition and if not, what alternative futures might be in store for us. It offers three scenarios and examines how the aforementioned six factors will be affected according to different outcomes. The three scenarios identified by Raskin et al are:

• 1. Conventional worlds – characterized by

• • Market forces: Self-correcting logic of market forces.

• • Policy reform: Government intervention to support a sustainable future.

• 2. Barbarization – characterized by

• • Breakdown: Conflict and crisis spiral into total collapse.

• • Fortress world: Authoritarian response creating a global apartheid of elite minority and impoverished majority.

• 3. Great transitions – characterized by

• • Eco-communalism: Self-sufficiency, localized models of social, economic and democratic activity.

• • New sustainability paradigm: Global society, cultural cross-fertilization, economic connectedness based on environmentally sustainable values.

It is possible that several of these scenarios will be enacted simultaneously in different political or geographical regions of the world.