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3 - Brinkmanship

Why States Do Not Play Russian Roulette

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 June 2025

Dan Reiter
Affiliation:
Emory University, Atlanta
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Summary

When a commitment is challenged, a state might choose to back down rather than follow through on a promise to go to war. This prospect makes the commitment not credible. One way to solve this problem is to remove choice from the committing state, to create a risk of inadvertent, uncontrolled escalation to war. This technique has been labeled brinkmanship. This chapter proposes that states do not engage in brinkmanship. To the contrary, they seek to control inadvertent escalation risks in order to retain the ability to choose whether or not to go to war. The chapter demonstrates this proposition empirically. It shows that inadvertent escalation to war since 1945 almost never happens, suggesting that states are not deliberately creating such risks. Further, in the small number of instances that inadvertent escalation did occur, it was not because a state was deliberately creating such risks in order to make a commitment more credible. The chapter also demonstrates the lack of brinkmanship in the Berlin, Taiwan Straits, and Cuban Missile Crises, showing that contra conventional wisdom, states and leaders have the motivation and ability to control carefully escalation risks. States do not engage in brinkmanship, they do not play Russian Roulette.

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Type
Chapter
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Untied Hands
How States Avoid the Wrong Wars
, pp. 45 - 86
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2025

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  • Brinkmanship
  • Dan Reiter, Emory University, Atlanta
  • Book: Untied Hands
  • Online publication: 03 June 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009596060.003
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  • Brinkmanship
  • Dan Reiter, Emory University, Atlanta
  • Book: Untied Hands
  • Online publication: 03 June 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009596060.003
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Brinkmanship
  • Dan Reiter, Emory University, Atlanta
  • Book: Untied Hands
  • Online publication: 03 June 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009596060.003
Available formats
×