Why States Do Not Play Russian Roulette
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 June 2025
When a commitment is challenged, a state might choose to back down rather than follow through on a promise to go to war. This prospect makes the commitment not credible. One way to solve this problem is to remove choice from the committing state, to create a risk of inadvertent, uncontrolled escalation to war. This technique has been labeled brinkmanship. This chapter proposes that states do not engage in brinkmanship. To the contrary, they seek to control inadvertent escalation risks in order to retain the ability to choose whether or not to go to war. The chapter demonstrates this proposition empirically. It shows that inadvertent escalation to war since 1945 almost never happens, suggesting that states are not deliberately creating such risks. Further, in the small number of instances that inadvertent escalation did occur, it was not because a state was deliberately creating such risks in order to make a commitment more credible. The chapter also demonstrates the lack of brinkmanship in the Berlin, Taiwan Straits, and Cuban Missile Crises, showing that contra conventional wisdom, states and leaders have the motivation and ability to control carefully escalation risks. States do not engage in brinkmanship, they do not play Russian Roulette.
To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.