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9 - Conclusions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 June 2025

Dan Reiter
Affiliation:
Emory University, Atlanta
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Summary

This chapter briefly summarizes the central argument of the book: states do not tie hands to make commitments to go to war more credible. It shows how the argument sheds light on the causes of war, that the risks of crises inadvertently escalating to war are much lower than many fear, suggesting a complete reassessment of crisis stability. It also discusses how states communicate with each other, if they do not tie hands. Next, it applies the argument to the Ukraine War, demonstrating how the insight that states do not tie hands helps explain several aspects of the Ukraine War, including why the war has not escalated, Ukraine is not a NATO member, the US withdrew advisors from Ukraine just prior to the war, and others. Last, the chapter considers this puzzle: If these tying hands ideas first developed by Thomas Schelling lack even anecdotal empirical support, why have they endured in scholarly and policy discussions for decades? Why do any ideas endure, past the point when the weight of evidence suggested they should be discarded?

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Chapter
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Untied Hands
How States Avoid the Wrong Wars
, pp. 231 - 247
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2025

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  • Conclusions
  • Dan Reiter, Emory University, Atlanta
  • Book: Untied Hands
  • Online publication: 03 June 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009596060.009
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  • Conclusions
  • Dan Reiter, Emory University, Atlanta
  • Book: Untied Hands
  • Online publication: 03 June 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009596060.009
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Conclusions
  • Dan Reiter, Emory University, Atlanta
  • Book: Untied Hands
  • Online publication: 03 June 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009596060.009
Available formats
×