Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-vvkck Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T09:10:12.798Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

CHAPTER 1 - MOTIVATION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 March 2011

David Pollard
Affiliation:
Yale University, Connecticut
Get access

Summary

  1. SECTION 1 offers some reasons for why anyone who uses probability should know about the measure theoretic approach.

  2. SECTION 2 describes some of the added complications, and some of the compensating benefits that come with the rigorous treatment of probabilities as measures.

  3. SECTION 3 argues that there are advantages in approaching the study of probability theory via expectations, interpreted as linear functionals, as the basic concept.

  4. SECTION 4 describes the de Finetti convention of identifying a set with its indicator function, and of using the same symbol for a probability measure and its corresponding expectation.

  5. SECTION *5 presents a fair-price interpretation of probability, which emphasizes the linearity properties of expectations. The interpretation is sometimes a useful guide to intuition.

Why bother with measure theory?

Following the appearance of the little book by Kolmogorov (1933), which set forth a measure theoretic foundation for probability theory, it has been widely accepted that probabilities should be studied as special sorts of measures. (More or less true—see the Notes to the Chapter.) Anyone who wants to understand modern probability theory will have to learn something about measures and integrals, but it takes surprisingly little to get started.

For a rigorous treatment of probability, the measure theoretic approach is a vast improvement over the arguments usually presented in undergraduate courses. Let me remind you of some difficulties with the typical introduction to probability.

Independence

There are various elementary definitions of independence for random variables.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • MOTIVATION
  • David Pollard, Yale University, Connecticut
  • Book: A User's Guide to Measure Theoretic Probability
  • Online publication: 29 March 2011
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511811555.002
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • MOTIVATION
  • David Pollard, Yale University, Connecticut
  • Book: A User's Guide to Measure Theoretic Probability
  • Online publication: 29 March 2011
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511811555.002
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • MOTIVATION
  • David Pollard, Yale University, Connecticut
  • Book: A User's Guide to Measure Theoretic Probability
  • Online publication: 29 March 2011
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511811555.002
Available formats
×