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3877 results in Optimization

Page 86 of 194

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards
  • Edited by Jonathan Rougier, Steve Sparks, Lisa J. Hill
  • Published online:
    05 March 2013
    Print publication:
    21 February 2013
  • Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

  • A TWO-STRAIN EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTERACTION

  • M. G. ROBERTS
  • Journal:
    The ANZIAM Journal / Volume 54 / Issue 1-2 / October 2012
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    21 February 2013, pp. 108-115
    • Article
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  • Annual epidemics of influenza A typically involve two subtypes, with a degree of cross-immunity. We present a model of an epidemic of two interacting viruses, where the degree of cross-immunity may be unknown. We treat the unknown as a second independent variable, and expand the dependent variables in orthogonal functions of this variable. The resulting set of differential equations is solved numerically. We show that if the population is initially more susceptible to one variant, if that variant invades earlier, or if it has a higher basic reproduction number than the other variant, then its dynamics are largely unaffected by cross-immunity. In contrast, the dynamics of the other variant may be considerably restricted.

Page 86 of 194