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In this chapter we show how to define temporal dependent sequences using a moving average type of construction. We compare the performance of this construction with a Markov-process type. We finally extend the models to include seasonal and periodic dependencies.
In this chapter we start with some attempts to construct dependence sequences with order larger than one and present a general result to achieve an invariant distribution via a three-level hierarchical model. We finally present some results involving exponential families.
In this chapter we describe a general procedure to construct Markov sequences with invariant distributions. The procedure can be used with conjugate and non-conjugate models and with parametric and nonparametric distributions. We derive several examples in detail and finish with some applications in survival analysis.
In this chapter we introduce the concept of exchangeability and show how to construct exchangeable sequences; we present our first result of how to construct exchangeable sequences and maintain a desirable marginal distribution and provide detailed examples. We finish with an application of exchangeable constructions in a meta analysis. Bugs and R code are provided.
In this chapter we start by reviewing the different types of inference procedures: frequentist, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric. We introduce notation by providing a list of the probability distributions that will be used later on, together with their first two moments. We review some results on conditional moments and carry out several examples. We review definitions of stochastic processes, stationary processes and Markov processes, and finish by introducing the most common discrete-time stochastic processes that show dependence in time and space.
In this chapter we conclude the book by presenting dependent models for random vectors and for stochastic processes. The types of dependence are exchangeable, Markov, moving average, spatial or a combination of the latter two.
Bringing together years of research into one useful resource, this text empowers the reader to creatively construct their own dependence models. Intended for senior undergraduate and postgraduate students, it takes a step-by-step look at the construction of specific dependence models, including exchangeable, Markov, moving average and, in general, spatio-temporal models. All constructions maintain a desired property of pre-specifying the marginal distribution and keeping it invariant. They do not separate the dependence from the marginals and the mechanisms followed to induce dependence are so general that they can be applied to a very large class of parametric distributions. All the constructions are based on appropriate definitions of three building blocks: prior distribution, likelihood function and posterior distribution, in a Bayesian analysis context. All results are illustrated with examples and graphical representations. Applications with data and code are interspersed throughout the book, covering fields including insurance and epidemiology.