This chapter introduces probability. We begin with an informal definition which enables us to build intuition about the properties of probability. Then, we present a more rigorous definition, based on the mathematical framework of probability spaces. Next, we describe conditional probability, a concept that makes it possible to update probabilities when additional information is revealed. In our first encounter with statistics, we explain how to estimate probabilities and conditional probabilities from data, as illustrated by an analysis of votes in the United States Congress. Building upon the concept of conditional probability, we define independence and conditional independence, which are critical concepts in probabilistic modeling. The chapter ends with a surprising twist: In practice, probabilities are often impossible to compute analytically! Fortunately, the Monte Carlo method provides a pragmatic solution to this challenge, allowing us to approximate probabilities very accurately using computer simulations. We apply w 3 × 3 basketball tournament from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

In this chapter we present two spatial dependent models: one based on defining a latent variable for each area, and the other by defining one latent variable for each pair of latent areas. We call the latter the latent edges model. We compare both models with a real data set. Extensions to spatio-temporal constructions are also considered.

In this chapter we define what a conjugate family is in a Bayesian analysis context and develop detailed examples of some cases; in particular, we review the beta and binomial case, the Pareto and inverse Pareto case, the gamma and gamma case and the gamma and Poisson case. We conclude by providing a list of conjugate models.

In this chapter we show how to define temporal dependent sequences using a moving average type of construction. We compare the performance of this construction with a Markov-process type. We finally extend the models to include seasonal and periodic dependencies.

In this chapter we start with some attempts to construct dependence sequences with order larger than one and present a general result to achieve an invariant distribution via a three-level hierarchical model. We finally present some results involving exponential families.

In this chapter we describe a general procedure to construct Markov sequences with invariant distributions. The procedure can be used with conjugate and non-conjugate models and with parametric and nonparametric distributions. We derive several examples in detail and finish with some applications in survival analysis.

In this chapter we introduce the concept of exchangeability and show how to construct exchangeable sequences; we present our first result of how to construct exchangeable sequences and maintain a desirable marginal distribution and provide detailed examples. We finish with an application of exchangeable constructions in a meta analysis. Bugs and R code are provided.

In this chapter we start by reviewing the different types of inference procedures: frequentist, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric. We introduce notation by providing a list of the probability distributions that will be used later on, together with their first two moments. We review some results on conditional moments and carry out several examples. We review definitions of stochastic processes, stationary processes and Markov processes, and finish by introducing the most common discrete-time stochastic processes that show dependence in time and space.

In this chapter we conclude the book by presenting dependent models for random vectors and for stochastic processes. The types of dependence are exchangeable, Markov, moving average, spatial or a combination of the latter two.