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The theory of periodic screening I: Lead time and proportion detected

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Philip C. Prorok
Philip C. Prorok*
Affiliation:
National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
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Abstract

A stochastic model for a periodic screening program is presented in which the natural history of a chronic disease is assumed to follow a progressive path from a preclinical state to a clinical state. The sampling of preclinical state sojourn times by screening examinations generates bounds on the preclinical state recurrence times. The distribution of the bounded forward recurrence time is derived and used to obtain the distribution and mean of the lead time, and relationships for calculating the proportion of preclinical cases detected. These expressions are derived in terms of the preclinical state sojourn-time distribution and adjustible parameters important in the design of a periodic screening program.

Keywords

EARLY DETECTIONPERIODIC SCREENINGPROGRESSIVE DISEASE MODELSTATIONARY POINT PROCESSFORWARD RECURRENCE TIMELENGTH-BIASED SAMPLINGLEAD TIMEPROPORTION DETECTED
Type
Research Article
Information
Advances in Applied Probability , Volume 8 , Issue 1 , March 1976 , pp. 127 - 143
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1976 

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