Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-5g6vh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-29T02:42:38.578Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The theory of periodic screening II: doubly bounded recurrence times and mean lead time and detection probability estimation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Philip C. Prorok
Philip C. Prorok*
Affiliation:
National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Additional theory important in the design and evaluation of a periodic screening program is presented. The distributions of doubly bounded preclinical state forward and backward recurrence times of the stochastic screening model are derived. Properties of these distributions are used to obtain an expression for estimating the mean lead time gained by screening, an alternative theoretical expression for the mean lead time and an equation for calculating an estimate of the probability of detecting preclinical disease.

Keywords

EARLY DETECTIONPERIODIC SCREENINGFORWARD RECURRENCE TIMEBACKWARD RECURRENCE TIMELEAD TIMEDETECTION PROBABILITYSTATIONARY POINT PROCESS
Type
Research Article
Information
Advances in Applied Probability , Volume 8 , Issue 3 , September 1976 , pp. 460 - 476
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1976 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Chiang, C. L. (1951) On the design of mass medical surveys. Human Biology 23, 242–271.Google Scholar
Hutchison, G. B. and Shapiro, S. (1968) Lead time gained by diagnostic screening for breast cancer. J. National Cancer Inst. 41, 665–681.Google Scholar
Knox, E. G. (1966) Cervical cytology: a scrutiny of the evidence. In Problems and Progress in Medical Care, ed. McLachlan, G. Oxford University Press, London, 277–309.Google Scholar
Nissen-Meyer, S. (1964) Evaluation of screening tests in medical diagnosis. Biometrics 20, 730–755.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prorok, P. C. (1973) On the Theory of Periodic Screening for the Early Detection of Disease. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, State University of New York at Buffalo.Google Scholar
Prorok, P. C. (1976) The theory of periodic screening I: lead time and proportion detected. Adv. Appl. Prob. 8, 127–143.Google Scholar
Shapiro, S., Goldberg, J. and Hutchison, G. B. (1974) Lead time in breast cancer detection and implications for periodicity of screening. Amer. J. Epidemiology 100, 357–366.Google Scholar
Venet, L., Strax, P., Venet, W. and Shapiro, S. (1971) Adequacies and inadequacies of breast examinations by physicians in mass screening. Cancer 28, 1546–1551.Google Scholar
Weldon, K. L. and MacKay, J. S. (1972) On improving the diagnostic value of quantitative medical laboratory tests in health screening. J. Chron. Dis. 25, 697–709.Google Scholar
Zelen, M. and Feinleib, M. (1969) On the theory of screening for chronic diseases. Biometrika 56, 601–614.Google Scholar
Zelen, M. (1971a) Problems in the early detection of disease and the finding of faults. Bulletin of the I.S.I.; Proceedings of the 38th Session 44, (1), 649–661.Google Scholar
Zelen, M. (1971b) Private communication.Google Scholar