Hostname: page-component-55f67697df-4ks9w Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-05-09T08:27:59.841Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Crime and Punishment: The Role of Norms in Crisis Bargaining

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Christopher Gelpi
Christopher Gelpi*
Affiliation:
Harvard University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this work I test the proposition that normative standards of behavior can influence state actions in security-related conflicts. Specifically, I examine the construction of norms in the settlements of security-related disputes and the effects these settlements have on subsequent militarized interactions. I argue that dispute settlements alter subsequent crisis bargaining in two important ways. First, they act as normative referents that alter the interpretation of subsequent crisis bargaining behavior both by identifying a solution to the dispute which alleviates fears of demands for future concessions and by defining a set of acts which both sides consider illegitimate. Second, in combination with the response to their violation, dispute settlements inflict reputational costs on states that violate them. I test these arguments against a realist theory of crisis bargaining through an analysis of 122 reinitiated international crises between 1929 and 1979. I find strong support for the hypothesis that states can and do construct normative standards that guide their behavior in international crises, whereas realist theory receives only mixed support.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 91 , Issue 2 , June 1997 , pp. 339 - 360
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Achen, Christopher. 1986. The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Betts, Richard K. 1987. Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Carr, E.H. 1946. The Twenty Years Crisis, 1919–1939. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Checkel, Jeff. 1993. “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution.” World Politics 45 (2):271–301.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry, Linz, Juan J., and Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1990. “Comparing Experiences with Democracy.” In Politics in Developing Countries: Comparing Experiences with Democracy, ed. Linz, Juan J. and Lipset, Seymour Martin. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Duffield, John. 1995. “Toward an Institutionalist Theory of International Security.” Charlottesville, VA. Typescript.Google Scholar
Ellsberg, Daniel. 1968. “The Theory and Practice of Blackmail.” Rand Paper P-1883. Los Angeles, CA.Google Scholar
Evangelista, Matthew. 1995. “Transnational Relations and Security Policy.” International Organization 49 (1):1–38.Google Scholar
Facts on File. 1940–1997. New York: Facts on File.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1990. “Deterrence and the Spiral Model: The Role of Costly Signals in Bargaining.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, August-September, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, and Siverson, Randolph. 1996. “War Expansion and War Outcomes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1):4–16.Google Scholar
George, Alexander, and Smoke, Richard. 1974. Deterrence in American Foreign Policy. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Glaser, Charles. 1990. Analyzing the Strategic Nuclear Debate: Theories, Alternative Worlds, and Choices in MAD. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gochman, Charles, and Maoz, Zeev. 1984. “Militarized Interstate Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (4):585–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goertz, Gary, and Diehl, Paul. 1992. “The Empirical Importance of Enduring Rivalries.” International Interactions 18 (2):151–63.Google Scholar
Goldschmidt, Bertrand. 1982. The Atomic Complex: A Worldwide History of Nuclear Energy. La Grange Park, IL: American Nuclear Society.Google Scholar
Hanushek, Eric, and Jackson, John. 1977. Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul. 1994. “One Thing Leads to Another: Recurrent Militarized Disputes in Latin America, 1816–1986.” Journal of Peace Research 31 (3):281–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herzog, Don. 1989. Happy Slaves: A Critique of Consent Theory. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul, Bennett, D. Scott, and Gelpi, Christopher. 1992. “System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (3):478–508.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul, Gelpi, Christopher, and Bennett, D. Scott. 1993. “The Escalation of Great Power Militarized Disputes: Testing Rational Deterrence Theory and Structural Realism.” American Political Science Review 87 (3):609–24.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul, and Russett, Bruce. 1990. “Testing Deterrence Theory: Rigor Makes a Difference.” World Politics 42 (4):466–502.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. “General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models.” American Political Science Review 87 (1):61–74.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1970. The Logic of Images in International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1978. “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.” World Politics 30 (01):167–214.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1983. “Security Regimes.” In International Regimes, ed. Krasner, Stephen. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1984. The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Keesing's Contemporary Archives. 1931–1986. London: Keesing's Limited.Google Scholar
Katzenstein, Peter, ed. 1996. The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O. 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O., and Martin, Lisa L.. 1995. “The Promise of Institutionalist Theory.” International Security 20 (1):39–52.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1989. Unifying Political Methodology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kocs, Stephen A. 1994. “Explaining the Strategic Behavior of States: International Law as System Structure.” International Studies Quarterly 38 (4):535–57.Google Scholar
Koslowski, Rey, and Kratochwil, Friedrich. 1994. “Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System.” International Organization 48 (2):215–47.Google Scholar
Krasner, Stephen, ed. 1983. International Regimes. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Larson, Deborah. 1992. “Credibility, Promises, and Reputation: From Conflict to Cooperation in US-Soviet Relations.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, August-September, Atlanta.Google Scholar
Legro, Jeffrey. 1995. Cooperation under Fire: Anglo-German Restrain during World War II. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Leng, Russell. 1983. “When Will They Ever Learn?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (3):379–419.Google Scholar
Leng, Russell. 1989. Behavioral Correlates of War Data Codebook. 2d ed. Ann Arbor: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].Google Scholar
Leng, Russell. 1993. Interstate Crisis Behavior, 1816–1980. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Leng, Russell, and Wheeler, Hugh. 1979. “Influence Strategies, Success, and War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 23 (4):655–84.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1983. War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press.Google Scholar
Martin, Lisa. 1992. Coercive Cooperation: Explaining Multilateral Economic Sanctions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John. 1994/1995. “The False Promise of International Institutions.” International Security 19 (Winter):5–49.Google Scholar
Mendelson, Sarah. 1993. “Internal Battles and External Wars: Politics, Learning and the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan.” World Politics 45 (2):327–71.Google Scholar
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1985. Politics among Nations. 6th ed. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Nalebuff, Barry. 1991. “Rational Deterrence in an Imperfect World.” World Politics 43 (3):313–36.Google Scholar
Oye, Kenneth, ed., 1985. Cooperation under Anarchy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Paul, T.V. 1995. “The Nuclear Taboo and War Initiation in Regional Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (12):696–717.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1990. Nuclear Deterrence Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Price, Richard. 1995. “A Genealogy of the Chemical Weapons Taboo.” International Organization 49 (1):73–103.Google Scholar
Price, Richard, and Tannenwald, Nina. 1996. “Norms and Deterrence: The Nuclear and Chemical Weapons Taboo.” In The Culture of National Security, ed. Katzenstein, Peter. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1993. National Capabilities Data. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Tannenwald, Nina. 1997. “The Nuclear Taboo: The Normative Basis of Deterrence.” Boulder, CO. Typescript.Google Scholar
Walzer, Michael. 1977. Just and Unjust Wars. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Wendt, Alexander. 1992. “Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics.” International Organization 46 (2):391–425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Brecher, Michael, and Moser, Sheila. 1988. Crises in the Twentieth Century: Handbook of Foreign Policy Crises, Vols. 1–3. New York: Pergamon Press.Google Scholar
Zagare, Frank. 1987. The Dynamics of Deterrence. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.