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Do Politicians Outside the United States Also Think Voters Are More Conservative than They Really Are?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 June 2023

JEAN-BENOIT PILET Open the ORCID record for JEAN-BENOIT PILET [Opens in a new window] ,
LIOR SHEFFER Open the ORCID record for LIOR SHEFFER [Opens in a new window] ,
LUZIA HELFER Open the ORCID record for LUZIA HELFER [Opens in a new window] ,
FREDERIC VARONE Open the ORCID record for FREDERIC VARONE [Opens in a new window] ,
RENS VLIEGENTHART Open the ORCID record for RENS VLIEGENTHART [Opens in a new window]  and
STEFAAN WALGRAVE Open the ORCID record for STEFAAN WALGRAVE [Opens in a new window]
JEAN-BENOIT PILET*
Affiliation:
Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Belgium
LIOR SHEFFER*
Affiliation:
Tel Aviv University, Israel
LUZIA HELFER*
Affiliation:
University of Geneva, Switzerland
FREDERIC VARONE*
Affiliation:
University of Geneva, Switzerland
RENS VLIEGENTHART*
Affiliation:
University of Wageningen, The Netherlands
STEFAAN WALGRAVE*
Affiliation:
University of Antwerp, Belgium
*
Jean-Benoit Pilet, Full Professor, Department of Political Science, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Belgium, Jean-Benoit.Pilet@ulb.be.
Lior Sheffer, Assistant Professor, School of Political Science, Government and International Affairs, Tel Aviv University, Israel, liorsheffer@tauex.tau.ac.il.
Luzia Helfer, Researcher, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Geneva, Switzerland, Luzia.Helfer@unige.ch.
Frederic Varone, Full Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Geneva, Switzerland, Frederic.Varone@unige.ch.
Rens Vliegenthart, Professor, Department of Social Sciences, University of Wageningen, The Netherlands, rens.vliegenthart@wur.nl.
Stefaan Walgrave, Full Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Antwerp, Belgium, stefaan.walgrave@uantwerpen.be.
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Abstract

In an influential recent study, Broockman and Skovron (2018) found that American politicians consistently overestimate the conservativeness of their constituents on a host of issues. Whether this conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion is a uniquely American phenomenon is an open question with broad implications for the quality and nature of democratic representation. We investigate it in four democracies: Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland. Despite these countries having political systems that differ greatly, we document a strong and persistent conservative bias held by a majority of the 866 representatives interviewed. Our findings highlight the conservative bias in elites’ perception of public opinion as a widespread regularity and point toward a pressing need for further research on its sources and impacts.

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Type
Letter
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 118 , Issue 2 , May 2024 , pp. 1037 - 1045
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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