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Issue Evolution, Population Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Edward G. Carmines  and
James A. Stimson
Edward G. Carmines
Affiliation:
Indiana University
James A. Stimson
Affiliation:
Florida State University
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Abstract

Students of American political behavior have usually turned to “critical election” realignment theories to explain the dynamics of long-term change in the party system. These theories are problematic on both theoretical and empirical grounds. A theory that can account for change within the context of a stable electoral system is required. We propose a theory of issue evolution that explains normal partisan change, and illustrate the theory by examining the impact of racial issues on party identification. The theory looks to the evolution of new issues as the stimulus of partisan change and to the continuous replacement of the electorate as the mechanism through which such change is effected. In a comparison of three theoretical models of issue evolution, we conclude that racial desegregation has provoked a subtle but permanent change in the recruitment of new members of political parties.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 75 , Issue 1 , March 1981 , pp. 107 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1981 

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