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Power Sharing and Authoritarian Stability: How Rebel Regimes Solve the Guardianship Dilemma

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 April 2022

ANNE MENG Open the ORCID record for ANNE MENG [Opens in a new window]  and
JACK PAINE Open the ORCID record for JACK PAINE [Opens in a new window]
ANNE MENG*
Affiliation:
University of Virginia, United States
JACK PAINE*
Affiliation:
University of Rochester, United States
*
Anne Meng, Assistant Professor, Department of Politics, University of Virginia, United States, ameng@virginia.edu.
Jack Paine, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, United States, jackpaine@rochester.edu.
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Abstract

Regimes founded in rebellion are, typically, extremely durable. We propose that this stability is founded upon peaceful power sharing between the rebel regime leader and military elites. Amid long and intense fighting, rebel leaders must delegate control to top military commanders because doing so helps them to win battles. After seizing power, power-sharing deals between former combatants are highly credible due to their history of interactions, which mitigates the guardianship dilemma. Elsewhere, a persistent internal security dilemma often undermines power-sharing deals. Using originally collected data on African regimes from 1960 to 2017, we establish that rebel regimes break down seldomly compared with other authoritarian regimes and they experience fewer coups. Regarding the mechanism, rebel regimes more frequently share power with military elites by appointing a Minister of Defense. These Ministers are typically high-ranking members of the rebellion, which reflects the regime’s replacement of the state military with their own.

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Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 116 , Issue 4 , November 2022 , pp. 1208 - 1225
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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