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Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists' Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 January 2013

THOMAS HEGGHAMMER*
Affiliation:
Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)
*
Thomas Hegghammer is Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), P.O. Box 25, 2027 Kjeller, Norway (hegghammer@gmail.com).

Abstract

This article studies variation in conflict theater choice by Western jihadists in an effort to understand their motivations. Some militants attack at home, whereas others join insurgencies abroad, but few scholars have asked why they make these different choices. Using open-source data, I estimate recruit supply for each theater, foreign fighter return rates, and returnee impact on domestic terrorist activity. The tentative data indicate that jihadists prefer foreign fighting, but a minority attacks at home after being radicalized, most often through foreign fighting or contact with a veteran. Most foreign fighters do not return for domestic operations, but those who do return are more effective operatives than nonveterans. The findings have implications for our understanding of the motivations of jihadists, for assessments of the terrorist threat posed by foreign fighters, and for counterterrorism policy.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

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