Skip to main content
×
×
Home

An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression

  • DANIEL W. HILL (a1) and ZACHARY M. JONES (a2)
Abstract

The empirical literature that examines cross-national patterns of state repression seeks to discover a set of political, economic, and social conditions that are consistently associated with government violations of human rights. Null hypothesis significance testing is the most common way of examining the relationship between repression and concepts of interest, but we argue that it is inadequate for this goal, and has produced potentially misleading results. To remedy this deficiency in the literature we use cross-validation and random forests to determine the predictive power of measures of concepts the literature identifies as important causes of repression. We find that few of these measures are able to substantially improve the predictive power of statistical models of repression. Further, the most studied concept in the literature, democratic political institutions, predicts certain kinds of repression much more accurately than others. We argue that this is due to conceptual and operational overlap between democracy and certain kinds of state repression. Finally, we argue that the impressive performance of certain features of domestic legal systems, as well as some economic and demographic factors, justifies a stronger focus on these concepts in future studies of repression.

Copyright
Corresponding author
Daniel W. Hill, Jr. is Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs, University of Georgia (dwhill@uga.edu), and is responsible for the research question, design of the cross-validation analysis, selection of the data, and the majority of the writing.
Zachary M. Jones is Ph.D. student, Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University (zmj@zmjones.com), and is responsible for design of the random forest analysis and multiple imputation, all data analysis and visualization, and description of the methods.
References
Hide All
Abouharb, M. Rodwan, and Cingranelli, David L.. 2006. “The Human Rights Effects of World Bank Structural Adjustment, 1981–2000.International Studies Quarterly 50 (2): 233–62.
Abouharb, M. Rodwan, and Cingranelli, David. 2007. Human Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2005. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Apodaca, Clair. 2001. “Global Economic Patterns and Personal Integrity Rights after the Cold War.International Studies Quarterly 45 (4): 587602.
Bagozzi, Benjamin. 2013. “Forecasting Civil Conflict with Zero-Inflated Count Models.” Working Paper, Pennsylvania State University.
Bagozzi, Benjamin, Hill, Daniel W. Jr., Moore, Will H., and Mukherjee, Bumba. Forthcoming. “Modeling Two Types of Peace: The Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model in Conflict Studies.” Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Bank, World. 2012. “World Bank Development Indicators.”
Beck, Thorsten, Clarke, George, Groff, Alberto, Keefer, Philip, and Walsh, Patrick. 2001. “New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions.The World Bank Economic Review 15 (1): 165–76.
Beck, Nathaniel, King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2000. “Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture.” American Political Science Review 94 (1): 2135.
Bell, Sam R., Clay, K. Chad, Flynn, Michael E., and Murdie, Amanda. 2013. “Now You See It, Now You Don’t? Transparency and Change in Government Respect for Physical Integrity Rights.” Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
Berk, Richard A. 2008. Statistical Learning from a Regression Perspective. New York: Springer.
Biau, Gérard, Devroye, Luc, and Lugosi, Gábor. 2008. “Consistency of Random Forests and other Averaging Classifiers.The Journal of Machine Learning Research 9: 2015–33.
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Boykoff, Jules. 2007. “Limiting Dissent: The Mechanisms of State Repression in the USA.Social Movement Studies 6 (3): 281310.
Brandt, Patrick T., Freeman, John R., and Schrodt, Philip A.. 2011. “Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter-and Intra-state Political Conflict.Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (1): 4164.
Breiman, Leo. 2001. “Random forests.Machine Learning 45 (1): 532.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, and Alastair Smith. 2009. “Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change.Comparative Political Studies 42 (2): 167–97.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Downs, George W., Smith, Alastair, and Cherif, Feryal Marie. 2005. “Thinking Inside the Box: A Closer Look at Democracy and Human Rights.International Studies Quarterly 49: 439–57.
Carey, John M. 2000. “Parchment, Equilibria, and Institutions.Comparative Political Studies 33 (6/7): 735–61.
Carrubba, Clifford J. 2009. “A Model of the Endogenous Development of Judicial Institutions in Federal and International Systems.Journal of Politics 71 (1): 115.
Cingranelli, David L., and Richards, David L.. 1999. “Measuring the Level, Pattern and Sequence of Government Respect for Physical Integrity Rights.International Studies Quarterly 43 (2): 407–18.
Cingranelli, David, and Filippov, Mikhail. 2010. “Electoral Rules and Incentives to Protect Human Rights.Journal of Politics 72 (1): 243–57.
Cingranelli, David L., and Richards, David L.. 2010 a. “The Cingranelli and Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Data Project.” Human Rights Quarterly 32 (2): 401–24.
Cingranelli, David L., and Richards, David L.. 2010 b. “The Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Dataset.” http://www.humanrightsdata.org
Clark, William Roberts, Golder, Matt, and Golder, Sona N.. 2013. “Power and Politics: Insights from an Exit, Voice, and Loyalty Game.” Working paper, University of Michigan and Pennsylvania State University.
Conrad, Courtenay R. 2012. “Divergent Incentives for Dictators: Domestic Institutions and (International Promises Not to) Torture.’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (1): 3467.
Conrad, Courtenay R., Haglund, Jillienne, and Moore, Will H.. 2013. “Disaggregating Torture Allegations: Introducing the Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) Country-Year Data.” International Studies Perspectives 14 (2): 199220.
Conrad, Courtenay R. and Ritter, Emily Hencken. 2013. “Treaties, Tenure, and Torture: The Conflicting Domestic Effects of International Law.” Journal of Politics 75 (2).
Conrad, Courtenay Ryals and Moore, Will H.. 2010. “What Stops the Torture?American Journal of Political Science 54 (2): 459–76.
Cross, Frank B. 1999. “The Relevance of Law in Human Rights Protection.International Review of Law and Economics 19 (1): 8798.
Dahl, Robert. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Davenport, Christian. 1995. “Multi-Dimensional Threat Perception and State Repression: An Inquiry Into Why States Apply Negative Sanctions.American Journal of Political Science 39 (3): 683713.
Davenport, Christian. 1996. “‘Constitutional Promises’ and Repressive Reality: A Cross-National Time-Series Investigation of Why Political and Civil Liberties are Suppressed.Journal of Politics 58 (3): 627–54.
Davenport, Christian. 1999. “Human Rights and the Democratic Proposition.Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (1): 92116.
Davenport, Christian. 2005. “Understanding Covert Repressive Action The Case of the US Government Against the Republic of New Africa.Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (1): 120–40.
Davenport, Christian. 2007 a. “State Repression and Political Order.” Annual Review of Political Science 10: 127.
Davenport, Christian. 2007 b. State Repression and the Domestic Democratic Peace. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Davenport, Christian, and Armstrong, David. 2004. “Democracy and the Violation of Human Rights: A Statistical Analysis from 1976–1996.American Journal of Political Science 48 (3): 538–54.
Davenport, Christian, Moore, Will H., and Armstrong, David. 2007. “The Puzzle of Abu Ghraib: Are Democratic Institutions a Palliative or Panacea?” Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1022367.
Della-Porta, Donatella. 1996. Social Movements and the State: Thoughts on the Policing of Protest. In Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings, eds. McAdam, Doug, McCarthy, John D. and Zald, Mayer N.. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Demeritt, Jaqueline H., Conrad, Courtenay Ryals, Fariss, Christopher J., and Schnakenberg, Keith E.. 2014. “Human Rights Advocacy and State Repression Substitutability.” Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
DeMeritt, Jacqueline H. R. and Young, Joseph K.. 2013. “A Political Economy of Human Rights: Oil, Natural Gas, and State Incentives to Repress.Conflict Management and Peace Science 30 (2): 99120.
Earl, Jennifer. 2003. “Tanks, Tear Gas, and Taxes: Toward a Theory of Movement Repression.Sociological Theory 21 (1): 4468.
Eck, Kristine, and Hultman, Lisa. 2007. “One-Sided Violence Against Civilians in War Insights from New Fatality Data.Journal of Peace Research 44 (2): 233–46.
Efron, Bradley. 1983. “Estimating the Error rate of a Prediction Rule: Improvement on Cross-Validation.Journal of the American Statistical Association 78 (382): 316–31.
Elkins, Zachary, Ginsburg, Tom, and Melton, James. 2009. The Endurance of National Constitutions. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Fariss, Christopher J. 2014. “Respect for Human Rights has Improved Over Time: Modeling the Changing Standard of Accountability.” American Political Science Review 108 (2): 297318.
Fariss, Christopher J. and Schnakenberg, Keith E.. Forthcoming. “Measuring Mutual Dependence between Repressive Actions.’’Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Fein, Helen. 1995. “More Murder in the Middle: Life-Integrity Violations and Democracy in the World, 1987.Human Rights Quarterly 17: 170.
Fielding, David, and Shortland, Anja. 2010. “An Eye for an Eye, a Tooth for a Tooth: Political Violence and Counter-Insurgency in Egypt.Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 433–47.
Francisco, Ronald A. 1995. “The Relationship between Coercion and Protest An Empirical Evaluation in Three Coercive States.Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (2): 263–82.
Francisco, Ronald A. 1996. “Coercion and Protest: An Empirical Test in Two Democratic States.American Journal of Political Science 40 (4): 1179–204.
Franklin, James C. 2008. “Shame on You: The Impact of Human Rights Criticism on Political Repression in Latin America.International Studies Quarterly 52 (1): 187211.
Freedman, David A. 1983. “A Note on Screening Regression Equations.The American Statistician 37 (2): 152–5.
Geisser, Seymour. 1975. “The Predictive Sample Reuse Method with Applications.Journal of the American Statistical Association 70 (350): 320–8.
Gibney, M., Cornett, L., and Wood, R.. 2009. “Politial Terror Scale 1976–2006.” http://www.politicalterrorscale.org
Gill, Jeff. 1999. “The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.Political Research Quarterly 52 (3): 647–74.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. “Expanded Trade and GDP Data.Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5): 712–24.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Ward, Michael D.. 1997. “Double Take: A Reexamination of Democracy and Autocracy in Modern Polities.Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3): 361–83.
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1986. The Political Origins of State Violence and Terror: A Theoretical Analysis. In Government Violence and Repression: An Agenda for Research, eds. Stohl, Michael and Lopez, George. New York: Greenwood Press.
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1988. “War, Revolution, and the Growth of the Coercive State.Comparative Political Studies 21 (1): 4565.
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2005 a. “Right or Robust? The Sensitive Nature of Repression to Globalization.” Journal of Peace Research 42 (6): 679–98.
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2005 b. “Trading Human Rights: How Preferential Trade Agreements Influence Government Repression.” International Organization 59 (3): 593629.
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2008. “Sticks and Stones: Naming and Shaming the Human Rights Enforcement Problem.International Organization 62 (4): 689716.
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., and Tsutsui, Kiyoteru. 2005. “Human Rights in a Globalizing World: The Paradox of Empty Promises.American Journal of Sociology 110 (5): 1373–411.
Harff, Barbara, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1988. “Toward Empirical Theory of Genocides and Politicides: Identification and Measurement of Cases since 1945.International Studies Quarterly 32 (3): 359–71.
Haschke, Peter. 2011. “Repression or Not: Physical Integrity Rights Violations in Contemporary Democracies.” Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.
Hastie, Trevor, Tibshirani, Robert J., and Friedman, Jerome. 2008. Elements of Statistical Learning. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Hathaway, Oona A. 2002. “Do Human Rights Treaties Make a Difference?Yale Law Journal 111: 19352042.
Hathaway, Oona A. 2004. The Promise and Limits of the International Law of Torture. In Torture, ed. Levinson, Sanford. New York: Oxford University Press, 199212.
Hathaway, Oona A. 2007. “Why Do Countries Commit to Human Rights Treaties?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (4): 588621.
Henderson, Conway. 1991. “Conditions Affecting the Use of Political Repression.Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 120–42.
Henderson, Conway. 1993. “Population Pressures and Political Repression.Social Science Quarterly 74 (2): 322–33.
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr 1973. “Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models.Sociological Methodology 1974: 252308.
Hill, Daniel W. Jr. 2010. “Estimating the Effects of Human Rights Treaties on State Behavior.The Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1161–74.
Hill, Daniel W. Jr. 2013. “The Concept of Personal Integrity Rights in Empirical Research.” IPSA Committee on Concepts and Methods Working Paper Series on Political Concepts No. 59.
Hoff, Peter D., and Ward, Michael D.. 2004. “Modeling Dependencies in International Relations Networks.Political Analysis 12 (2): 160–75.
Hollyer, James, and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2011. “Why do Authoritarian Regimes Sign the Convention Against Torture? Signaling, Domestic Politics and Non-Compliance.Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6: 275327.
Hothorn, Torsten, Hornik, Kurt, and Zeileis, Achim. 2006. “Unbiased Recursive Partitioning: A Conditional Inference Framework.Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 15 (3): 651–74.
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Vol. 4. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
Jones, Zachary M. 2013. “An Analysis of Polity IV and its Components.” http://zmjones.com/polity/.
Keith, Linda Camp. 1999. “The United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: Does It Make a Difference in Human Rights Behavior?Journal of Peace Research 36 (1): 95118.
Keith, Linda Camp. 2002. “Constitutional Provisions for Individual Human Rights: Are They More Than Mere Window Dressing.Political Research Quarterly 55: 111–43.
Keith, Linda Camp, Tate, C. Neal, and Poe, Steve C.. 2009. “Is the Law a Mere Parchment Barrier to Human Rights Abuse?” Journal of Politics 71 (2): 644–60.
Leamer, Edward, and Leonard, Herman. 1983. “Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates.The Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (2): 306–17.
Lee, John N., and Ahlquist, John S.. 2011. “Justify My Love: A Re-Introduction to Out-of-Sample Prediction, Cross-Validation, and Model Selection for Applied Research.” Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association.
Lichbach, Mark. 1987. “Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent.Journal of Conflict Resolution 31: 266–97.
Linzer, Drew, and Staton, Jeffrey K.. 2011. “A Measurement Model for Synthesizing Multiple Comparative Indicators: The Case of Judicial Independence.” Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
Lupu, Yonatan. 2013. “Best Evidence: The Role of Information in Domestic Judicial Enforcement of International Human Rights Agreements.International Organization 67 (3): 469503.
Marshall, Monty G, Gurr, Ted Robert, and Harff, Barbara. 2009. “Political Instability Task Force State Failure Problem Set: Internal Wars and Failures of Governance, 1955–2009.” Dataset and Coding Guidelines.
Marshall, Monty, and Jaggers, Keith. 2009. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007. Data Users’ Manual. Center for Systemic Peace. Available online at http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2007.pdf.
Meyer, William H. 1996. “Human Rights and MNCs: Theory versus Quantitative Analysis.Human Rights Quarterly 18 (2): 368–97.
Mitchell, Neil J., and McCormick, James M.. 1988. “Economic and Political Explanations of Human Rights Violations.World Politics 40 (4): 476–98.
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, Ring, Jonathan J., and Spellman, Mary K.. 2013. “Domestic Legal Traditions and States’ Human Rights Practices.Journal of Peace Research 50 (2): 189202.
Moore, Will H. 1995. “Action-Reaction or Rational Expectations? Reciprocity and the Domestic-International Conflict Nexus during the Rhodesia Problem.Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 129–67.
Moore, Will H. 1998. “Repression and Dissent: Substitution, Context and Timing.American Journal of Political Science 45 (3): 851–73.
Moore, Will H. 2000. “The Repression of Dissent: A Substitution Model of Government Coercion.Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (1): 107–27.
Moore, Will H. 2010. “Incarceration, Interrogation, and Counterterror: Do (Liberal) Democratic Institutions Constrain Leviathan?” PS: Political Science and Politics 43 (3): 421–4.
Munck, Gerardo L., and Verkuilen, Jay. 2002. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices.Comparative Political Studies 35 (1): 534.
Murdie, Amanda M., and Davis, David R.. 2012. “Shaming and Blaming: Using Events Data to Assess the Impact of Human Rights INGOs.International Studies Quarterly 56 (1): 116.
Murphy, Kevin P. 2012. Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Neumayer, Eric. 2005. “Do International Human Rights Treaties Improve Respect for Human Rights?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (6): 925–53.
Nordås, Ragnhild, and Davenport, Christian. 2013. “Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (4): 926–40.
North, Douglass C., and Weingast, Barry R.. 1989. “Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England.The Journal of Economic History 49 (04): 803–32.
Ordeshook, Peter C. 1992. “Constitutional Stability.Constitutional Political Economy 3 (2): 137–75.
Park, Han S. 1987. “Correlates of Human Rights: Global Tendencies.Human Rights Quarterly 9 (3): 405–13.
Picard, Richard R., and Cook, R. Dennis 1984. “Cross-Validation of Regression Models.Journal of The American Statistical Association 79 (387): 575–83.
Pierskalla, Jan Henryk. 2010. “Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression.Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (1): 117–45.
Poe, Steven C. 2004. The Decision to Repress: An Integrative Theoretical Approach to the Research on Human Rights and Repression. In Understanding Human Rights Violations: New Systematic Studies, eds. Carey, Sabine C. and Poe, Steven C.. Ashgate.
Poe, Steven C., Carey, Sabine C., and Vazquez, Tanya C.. 2001. “How Are These Pictures Different? A Quantitative Comparison of the US State Department and Amnesty International Human Rights Reports, 1976–1995.Human Rights Quarterly 23 (3): 650–77.
Poe, Steven C., Rost, Nicolas, and Carey, Sabine C. 2006. “Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies A Human Rights Analysis.Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (4): 484507.
Poe, Steven, and Tate, C. Neal. 1994. “Repression of Personal Integrity Rights in the 1980’s: A Global Analysis.American Political Science Review 88: 853–72.
Poe, Steven, Tate, C. Neal, and Keith, Linda Camp. 1999. “Repression of the Human Right to Personal Integrity Revisited: A Global, Cross-National Study Covering the Years 1976–1993.International Studies Quarterly 43: 291313.
Politis, D. N., Romano, J. P., and Wolf, M.. 1999. Subsampling. New York: Springer.
Powell, Emilia Justyna, and Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin. 2007. “The International Court of Justice and the World’s Three Legal Systems.Journal of Politics 69 (2): 397415.
Powell, Emilia J., and Staton, Jeffrey K.. 2009. “Domestic Judicial Institutions and Human Rights Treaty Violation.International Studies Quarterly 53 (1): 149–74.
Rasler, Karen. 1996. “Concessions, Repression, and Political Protest in the Iranian Revolution.American Sociological Review 132–52.
Rejali, Darius. 2007. Torture and Democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Richards, David L., Gelleny, Ronald D., and Sacko, David H.. 2001. “Money With a Mean Streak? Foreign Economic Penetration and Government Respect for Human Rights in Developing Countries.International Studies Quarterly 45 (2): 219–39.
Ríos-Figueroa, Julio, and Staton, Jeffrey K.. 2014. “An Evaluation of Cross-National Measures of Judicial Independence.” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 30 (1): 104–37.
Ritter, Emily Hencken. 2014. “Policy Disputes, Political Survival, and the Onset and Severity of State Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (1): 143–68.
Ron, James, Ramos, Howard, and Rodgers, Kathleen. 2005. “Transnational Information Politics: NGO Human Rights Reporting, 1986–2000.International Studies Quarterly 49 (3): 557–88.
Ross, Michael. 2006. “A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War.Annual Review of Political Science 9: 265300.
Rummel, Rudolph J. 1995. “Democracy, Power, Genocide, and Mass Murder.Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 326.
Schnakenberg, Keith E., and Fariss, Christopher J.. 2014. “Dynamic Patterns of Human Rights Practices.” Political Science Research and Methods 2 (1): 131.
Shellman, Stephen M. 2006. “Leaders’ Motivations and Actions: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes.Conflict Management and Peace Science 23 (1): 7390.
Simmons, Beth A. 2009. Mobilizing for Human Rights: International Law in Domestic Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Siroky, David S. et al. 2009. “Navigating Random Forests and Related Advances in Algorithmic Modeling.Statistics Surveys 3: 147–63.
Somers, Robert H. 1962. “A New Asymmetric Measure of Association for Ordinal Variables.American Sociological Review 27: 799811.
Spilker, Gabriele, and Bohmelt, Tobias. 2013. “The Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Governmental Repression Revisited.” Review of International Organizations 8 (3): 343–61.
Staton, Jeffrey K. 2006. “Constitutional Review and the Selective Promotion of Case Results.American Journal of Political Science 50 (1): 98112.
Staton, Jeffrey K., and Moore, Will H.. 2011. “Judicial Power in Domestic and International Politics.International Organization 65 (3): 553–87.
Stohl, Michael, Carleton, David, Lopez, George, and Samuels, Stephen. 1986. “State Violation of Human Rights: Issues and Problems of Measurement.Human Rights Quarterly 8: 592.
Strobl, Carolin, Boulesteix, Anne-Laure, Zeileis, Achim, and Hothorn, Torsten. 2007. “Bias in Random Forest Variable Importance Measures: Illustrations, Sources and a Solution.BMC Bioinformatics 8 (1): 25.
Strobl, Carolin, Malley, James, and Tutz, Gerhard. 2009. “An Introduction to Recursive Partitioning: Rationale, Application, and Characteristics of Classification and Regression Trees, Bagging, and Random Forests.Psychological Methods 14 (4): 323.
Summers, Robert, and Heston, Alan. 1991. “The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988.The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2): 327–68.
Taylor, Charles L., and Jodice, David. 1983. “World Handbook of Social and Political Indicators.” New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Themnér, Lotta, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2012. “Armed Conflicts, 1946–2011.Journal of Peace Research 49 (4): 565–75.
Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Tilly, Charles. 1985. War Making and State Making as Organized Crime. In Bringing the State Back In, ed. Skocpol, Theda. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 169–91.
Urdal, Henrik. 2006. “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence.International Studies Quarterly 50 (3): 607–29.
Vanberg, Georg. 2005. The Politics of Constitutional Review in Germany. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Vreeland, James R. 2008. “Political Institutions and Human Rights: Why Dictatorships Enter into the United Nations Convention Against Torture.International Organization 62 (01): 65101.
Ward, Michael D., and Ahlquist, John S.. 2014. Maximum Likelihood Strategies for Social Sciences: Strategies for Analysis. Unpublished manuscript.
Ward, Michael D., Greenhill, Brian D., and Bakke, Kristin M.. 2010. “The Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts.Journal of Peace Research 47 (4): 363–75.
Ward, Michael D., and Hoff, Peter D.. 2007. “Persistent Patterns of International Commerce.Journal of Peace Research 44 (2): 157–75.
Ward, Michael D., Metternich, Nils W., Dorff, Cassy, Gallop, Max, Hollenbach, Florian M., Schultz, Anna, and Weschle, Simon. 2012. “Learning From the Past and Stepping Inot The Future: The Next Generation of Crisis Predition.International Studies Review 15 (4): 473–90.
Ward, Michael D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Cao, Xun. 2007. “Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace.American Journal of Political Science 51 (3): 583601.
Weingast, Barry. 1997. “The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law.American Political Science Review 91 (2): 245–63.
Wood, Reed M., and Gibney, Mark. 2010. “The Political Terror Scale (PTS): A Re-Introduction and a Comparison to CIRI.Human Rights Quarterly 32 (2): 367400.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

American Political Science Review
  • ISSN: 0003-0554
  • EISSN: 1537-5943
  • URL: /core/journals/american-political-science-review
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 65
Total number of PDF views: 719 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 2624 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 27th May 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.