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Chicoine, Luke E. 2017. Homicides in Mexico and the expiration of the U.S. federal assault weapons ban: a difference-in-discontinuities approach. Journal of Economic Geography, p. lbw031.
Lacombe, Donald J. and Flores, Miguel 2017. A hierarchical SLX model application to violent crime in Mexico. The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 58, Issue. 1, p. 119.
Brauer, Jurgen Montolio, Daniel and Trujillo-Baute, Elisa 2017. How do US state firearms laws affect firearms manufacturing location? An empirical investigation, 1986–2010. Journal of Economic Geography, p. lbw016.
Dube, Oeindrila García-Ponce, Omar and Thom, Kevin 2017. FROM MAIZE TO HAZE: AGRICULTURAL SHOCKS AND THE GROWTH OF THE MEXICAN DRUG SECTOR. Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14, Issue. 5, p. 1181.
Enamorado, Ted López-Calva, Luis F. Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos and Winkler, Hernán 2017. Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 120, p. 128.
Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio 2017. Fear of Obama: An empirical study of the demand for guns and the U.S. 2008 presidential election. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 130, p. 66.
Fortunato, David 2017. Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?*. Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 96, Issue. 4, p. 1071.
Lee, Kangoh 2017. Federalism, guns, and jurisdictional gun policies. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 52, p. 141.
Verdugo Yepes, Concepción Pedroni, Peter and Hu, Xingwei 2017. Crime and the Economy in Mexican States: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012). IMF Working Papers, Vol. 15, Issue. 121, p. 1.
Cockerham, Geoffrey B. and Colnic, David 2017. Good Neighbors? Prospects of United States-Mexico Cooperation for Joint Security. The Latin Americanist, Vol. 58, Issue. 4, p. 3.
Leenen, Iwin and Cervantes-Trejo, Arturo 2017. Temporal and geographic trends in homicide and suicide rates in Mexico, from 1998 through 2012. Aggression and Violent Behavior, Vol. 19, Issue. 6, p. 699.
To what extent, and under what conditions, does access to arms fuel violent crime? To answer this question, we exploit a unique natural experiment: the 2004 expiration of the U.S. Federal Assault Weapons Ban exerted a spillover on gun supply in Mexican municipios near Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico, but not near California, which retained a pre-existing state-level ban. We find first that Mexican municipios located closer to the non-California border states experienced differential increases in homicides, gun-related homicides, and crime gun seizures after 2004. Second, the magnitude of this effect is contingent on political factors related to Mexico's democratic transition. Killings increased disproportionately in municipios where local elections had become more competitive prior to 2004, with the largest differentials emerging in high narco-trafficking areas. Our findings suggest that competition undermined informal agreements between drug cartels and entrenched local governments, highlighting the role of political conditions in mediating the gun-crime relationship.
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