Skip to main content
×
×
Home

A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice

  • Gregory B. Markus (a1) and Philip E. Converse (a1)
Abstract

This article develops a simultaneous equation model of the voting decision in a form thought to mirror the main lines of cognitive decision-making processes of individual voters. The model goes beyond earlier efforts in two respects. First, it explicitly represents the causal interdependence of voter assessments in the election situation, permitting such estimations as the degree to which correlations between voter issue positions and issue positions ascribed to preferred candidates arise because of projection onto the candidate or persuasion by the candidate. Secondly, the model is truly dynamic, in the sense that it is dependent on longitudinal data for its proper estimation. The utility of the model is certified by the goodness of fit achieved when applied to 1972–76 panel data for a sample of the national electorate.

Copyright
References
Hide All
Achen, Christopher H. (1975). “Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response.” American Political Science Review 69:1218–31.
Achen, Christopher H. (1976). “Issue Voting in the 1950's.” Unpublished, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley.
Allison, Paul D. (1977). “Testing for Interaction in Multiple Regression.” American Journal of Sociology 82:144–53.
Berelson, Bernard R., Lazarsfeld, Paul F., and McPhee, William N. (1954). Voting. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Brody, Richard A., and Page, Benjamin I. (1972). “Comment: The Assessment of Policy Voting.” American Political Science Review 66: 450–58.
Brody, Richard A., and Page, Benjamin I. (1973). “Indifference, Alienation, and Rational Decision: The Effects of Candidate Evaluations on Turnout and the Vote.” Public Choice 15: 117.
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E. (1960). The American Voter. New York: Wiley.
Converse, Philip E. (1966). “The Concept of a Normal Vote.” In Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E. (eds.), Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley.
Converse, Philip E. (1970). “Attitudes and Non-Attitudes: Continuation of a Dialogue.” In Tufte, Edward R. (ed.), The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
Converse, Philip E. and Markus, Gregory B. (1979). “‘Plus ça Change…:’ The New CPS Election Study Panel.” American Political Science Review 73: 249.
Dawes, Robin, and Corrigan, B. (1974). “Linear Models in Decision Making.” Psychological Bulletin 81: 95106.
Davis, Otto A., Hinich, Melvin J., and Ordeshook, Peter C. (1970). “An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process.” American Political Science Review 64: 426–48.
Declercq, Eugene, Hurley, Thomas L., and Luttbeg, Norman R. (1975). “Voting in American Presidential Elections: 1956–1972.” American Politics Quarterly 3: 247–83.
Goldberg, Arthur S. (1966). “Discerning a Causal Pattern Among Data on Voting Behavior.” American Political Science Review 60: 913–22.
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P. (1975). “Closeness Counts Only in Horseshoes and Dancing.” American Political Science Review 69: 920–25.
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr., (1972). Mass Political Violence. New York: Wiley.
Jackson, John E. (1975). “Issues, Patty Choices, and Presidential Votes.” American Journal of Political Science 19: 161–86.
Kelley, Stanley Jr., and Mirer, Thad W. (1974). “The Simple Act of Voting.” American Political Science Review 68: 572–91.
Markus, Gregory B. (1976). “Candidates, Parties, and Issues: A Feedback Model of the Voting Decision.” Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan.
Miller, Arthur H., Miller, Warren E., Raine, Alden S., and Brown, Thad A. (1976). “A Majority Party in Disarray: Policy Polarization in the 1972 Election.” American Political Science Review 70: 753–78.
Miller, Arthur H., and Miller, Warren E. (1977). “Partisanship and Performance: ‘Rational’ Choice in the 1976 Presidential Election.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.
Nisbett, Richard E., and Wilson, Timothy D. (1977). “Telling More Than We Know: Verbal Reports on Mental Processes.” Psychological Review 84: 231–59.
Page, Benjamin I., and Brody, Richard A. (1972). “Policy Voting and the Electoral Process: The Vietnam War Issue.” American Political Science Review 66: 979–95.
Page, Benjamin I., and Brody, Richard A., and Jones, Calvin (1978). “Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties and the Vote.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York.
Pomper, Gerald M. (1972). “From Confusion to Clarity: Issues and American Voters, 1956–1968.” American Political Science Review 66: 415–28.
RePass, David E. (1971). “Issue Salience and Party Choice.” American Political Science Review 65: 389400.
Riker, William, and Ordeshook, Peter (1968). “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” American Political Science Review 62: 2542.
Schuman, Mark A., and Pomper, Gerald M. (1975). “Variability in Electoral Behavior: Longitudinal Perspectives from Causal Modeling.” American Journal of Political Science 19: 118.
Shapiro, Michael J. (1969). “Rational Political Man: A Synthesis of Economic and Social-Psychological Perspectives.” American Political Science Review 63: 1106–19.
Wainer, Howard (1976). “Estimating Coefficients in Linear Models: It Don't Make No Nevermind.” Psychological Bulletin 83: 213–17.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

American Political Science Review
  • ISSN: 0003-0554
  • EISSN: 1537-5943
  • URL: /core/journals/american-political-science-review
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed