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How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment

  • ALAN S. GERBER (a1), JAMES G. GIMPEL (a2), DONALD P. GREEN (a1) and DARON R. SHAW (a3)
Abstract

We report the results of the first large-scale experiment involving paid political advertising. During the opening months of a 2006 gubernatorial campaign, approximately $2 million of television and radio advertising on behalf of the incumbent candidate was deployed experimentally. In each experimental media market, the launch date and volume of television advertising were randomly assigned. In order to gauge movement in public opinion, a tracking poll conducted brief telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 registered voters each day and a brief follow-up one month after the conclusion of the television campaign. Results indicate that televised ads have strong but short-lived effects on voting preferences. The ephemeral nature of these effects is more consistent with psychological models of priming than with models of on-line processing.

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Corresponding author
Alan S. Gerber is Professor, Department of Political Science and Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 77 Prospect Street, P.O. Box 208209, New Haven, CT 06520 (alan.gerber@yale.edu).
James G. Gimpel is Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (jgimpel@gvpt.umd.edu).
Donald P. Green is Professor, Department of Political Science and Director, Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 77 Prospect Street, P.O. Box 208209, New Haven, CT 06520 (donald.green@yale.edu).
Daron R. Shaw is Professor, Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin, University Station A1800, Austin, TX 78712 (dshaw@austin.utexas.edu).
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C. Hovland , A. Lumsdaine , and F. Sheffield . 1949. Experiments in Mass Communication: Studies of Social Psychology in World War II. Ann Arbor, MI: Association for Consumer Research.

Richard Johnston , Michael G. Hagen , and Kathleen Hall Jamieson . 2004. The 2000 Presidential Elections and the Foundations of Party Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

John Zaller . 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.

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American Political Science Review
  • ISSN: 0003-0554
  • EISSN: 1537-5943
  • URL: /core/journals/american-political-science-review
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