Skip to main content
×
Home

Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates

  • Tatsuru Sato (a1) (a2) and Ralf Greve (a2)
Abstract
Abstract

Ice-sheet modelling is an important tool for predicting the possible response of ice sheets to climate change in the past and future. An established ice-sheet model is SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), and for this study the previously grounded-ice-only model was complemented by an ice-shelf module. The new version of SICOPOLIS is applied to the Antarctic ice sheet, driven by standard forcings defined by the SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) community effort. A crucial point for simulations into the future is to obtain reasonable initial conditions by a palaeoclimatic spin-up, which we carry out over 125 000 years from the Eemian until today. We then carry out a set of experiments for 500 years into the future, in which the surface temperature and precipitation are kept at their present-day distributions, while sub-ice-shelf melting rates between 0 and 200 ma–1 are applied. These simulations show a significant, but not catastrophic, sensitivity of the ice sheet. Grounded-ice volumes decrease with increasing melting rates, and the spread of the results from the zero to the maximum melting case is ~0.65ms.l.e. (metres sea-level equivalent) after 100 years and ~2.25ms.l.e. after 500 years.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates
      Available formats
      ×
Copyright
References
Hide All
Arthern RJ, Winebrenner DP and Vaughan DG (2006) Antarctic snow accumulation mapped using polarization of 4.3 cm wavelength microwave emission. J. Geophys. Res., 111(D6), D06107 (doi: 10.1029/2004JD005667)
Bindschadler R (1983) The importance of pressurized subglacial water in separation and sliding at the glacier bed. J. Glaciol., 29(101), 3–19
Calov R (1994) Das thermomechanische Verhalten des Grönländischen Eisschildes unter der Wirkung verschiedener Klimaszenarien – Antworten eines theoretisch-numerischen Modells. (PhD thesis, Technische Hochschule, Darmstadt)
Calov R and Greve R (2005) Correspondence. A semi-analytical solution for the positive degree-day model with stochastic temperature variations. J. Glaciol., 51(172), 173–175 (doi: 10.3189/172756505781829601)
Cuffey KM and Paterson WSB (2010) The physics of glaciers, 4th edn. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford
Dunse T, Greve R, Schuler TV and Hagen JO (2011) Permanent fast flow versus cyclic surge behaviour: numerical simulations of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. J. Glaciol., 57(202), 247–259 (doi: 10.3189/002214311796405979)
Fortuin JPF and Oerlemans J (1990) Parameterization of the annual surface temperature and mass balance of Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol., 14, 78–84
Fox Maule C, Purucker ME, Olsen N and Mosegaard K (2005) Heat flux anomalies in Antarctica revealed by satellite magnetic data. Science, 309(5733), 464–467 (doi: 10.1126/science.1106888)
Greve R (1997) Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. J. Climate, 10(5), 901–918
Greve R (2001) Glacial isostasy: models for the response of the Earth to varying ice loads. In Straughan B, Greve R, Ehrentraut H and Wang Y, eds. Continuum mechanics and applications in geophysics and the environment. Springer, Berlin, 307–325
Greve R and Blatter H (2009) Dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers. Springer, Dordrecht
Hindmarsh RCA and Le Meur E (2001) Dynamical processes involved in the retreat of marine ice sheets. J. Glaciol., 47(157), 271–282 (doi: 10.3189/172756501781832269)
Hutter K (1983) Theoretical glaciology; material science of ice and the mechanics of glaciers and ice sheets. D. Reidel, Dordrecht/Terra Scientific, Tokyo
Huybrechts P and De Wolde J (1999) The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J. Climate, 12(8), 2169–2188 (doi: 10.1175/1520-0442 (1999)012<2169:TDROTG>2.0.CO;2)
Joughin I, Rignot E, Rosanova CE, Lucchitta BK and Bohlander J (2003) Timing of recent accelerations of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(13), 1706 (doi: 10.1029/2003GL017609)
Le Meur E and Huybrechts P (1996) A comparison of different ways of dealing with isostasy: examples from modelling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle. Ann. Glaciol., 23, 309–317
Lemke P and 10 others (2007) Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. In Solomon S and 7 others eds. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 339–383
Lliboutry L (1968) General theory of subglacial cavitation and sliding of temperate glaciers. J. Glaciol., 7(49), 21–58
Lliboutry L and Duval P (1985) Various isotropic and anisotropic ices found in glaciers and polar ice caps and their corresponding rheologies. Ann. Geophys., 3(2), 207–224
Llubes M, Lanseau C and Rémy F (2006) Relations between basal condition, subglacial hydrological networks and geothermal flux in Antarctica. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 241(3–4), 655–662 (doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2005.10.040)
MacAyeal DR (1989) Large-scale ice flow over a viscous basal sediment: theory and application to Ice Stream B, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res., 94(B4), 4071–4087 (doi: 10.1029/88JB03848)
Morland LW (1984) Thermomechanical balances of ice sheet flows. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 29(1–4), 237–266 (doi: 10.1080/03091928408248191)
Morland LW (1987) Unconfined ice-shelf flow. In Van der Veen CJ and Oerlemans J eds. Dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet. D. Reidel, Dordrecht, 99–116
Motoyama H (2007) The second deep ice coring project at Dome Fuji, Antarctica. Sci. Drilling, 5(5), 41–43 (doi: 10.2204/iodp.sd.5.05.2007)
Parrenin F and 15 others (2007) 1-D-ice flow modelling at EPICA Dome C and Dome Fuji, East Antarctica. Climate Past, 3(2), 243–259 (doi: 10.5194/cp-3-243-2007)
Petit JR and 18 others (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420 000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399(6735), 429–436 (doi: 10.1038/20859)
Pollard D and DeConto RM (2007) A coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf/sediment model applied to a marine margin flowline: forced and unforced variations. In Hambrey MJ, Christoffersen P, Glasser NF and Hubbard B, eds. Glacial sedimentary processes and products. Blackwell, Malden, MA, 37–52
Pollard D and DeConto RM (2009) Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years. Nature, 458(7236), 329–332 (doi: 10.1038/nature07809)
Reeh N (1991) Parameterization of melt rate and surface temperature on the Greenland ice sheet. Polarforschung, 59(3), 113–128
Rignot E and Jacobs SS (2002) Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic ice sheet grounding lines. Science, 296(5575), 2020–2023 (doi: 10.1126/science.1070942)
Rignot E, Casassa G, Gogineni P, Krabill W, Rivera A and Thomas R (2004) Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31(18), L18401 (doi: 10.1029/2004GL020697)
Rignot E, Velicogna I, Van den Broeke MR, Monaghan A and Lenaerts J (2011) Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38(5), L05503 (doi: 10.1029/2011GL046583)
Ritz C, Rommelaere V and Dumas C (2001) Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420 000 years: implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region. J. Geophys. Res., 106(D23), 31 943–31 964 (doi: 10.1029/2001JD900232)
Schoof C (2007) Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: steady states, stability, and hysteresis. J. Geophys. Res., 112(F3), F03S28 (doi: 10.1029/2006JF000664)
Seddik H, Greve R, Zwinger T and Placidi L (2011) A full Stokes ice flow model for the vicinity of Dome Fuji, Antarctica, with induced anisotropy and fabric evolution. Cryosphere, 5(2), 495–508 (doi: 10.5194/tc-5-495-2011)
Shapiro NM and Ritzwoller MH (2004) Inferring surface heat flux distribution guided by a global seismic model: particular application to Antarctica. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 223(1–2), 213–224 (doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011)
Shepherd A, Wingham DJ, Mansley JAD and Corr HFJ (2001) Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. Science, 291(5505), 862–864 (doi: 10.1126/science.291.5505.862)
Solomon S and 7 others eds. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Van de Berg WJ, Van den Broeke MR, Reijmer CH and Van Meijgaard E (2006) Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 111(D11), D11104 (doi: 10.1029/2005JD006495)
Van den Broeke MR, Bamber J, Lenaerts J and Rignot E (2011) Ice sheets and sea level: thinking outside the box. Surv. Geophys., 32(4–5), 495–505 (doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9137-z)
Weertman J (1964) The theory of glacier sliding. J. Glaciol., 5(39), 287–303
Weis M, Greve R and Hutter K (1999) Theory of shallow ice shelves. Contin. Mech. Thermodyn., 11(1), 15–50 (doi: 10.1007/s001610050102)
Wilhelms F, Sheldon SG, Hamann I and Kipfstuhl S (2007) Implications for and findings from deep ice core drillings – an example: the ultimate tensile strength of ice at high strain rates. In Kuhs WF ed. Physics and chemistry of ice. Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, 635–639
Zwally HJ and Giovinetto MB (2011) Overview and assessment of Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance estimates: 1992–2009. Surv. Geophys., 32(4–5), 351–376 (doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9123-5)
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Annals of Glaciology
  • ISSN: 0260-3055
  • EISSN: 1727-5644
  • URL: /core/journals/annals-of-glaciology
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 13 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 18 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 14th September 2017 - 13th December 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.