Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections

  • Marion Réveillet (a1) (a2), Antoine Rabatel (a1) (a2), Fabien Gillet-Chaulet (a1) (a2) and Alvaro Soruco (a3)
Abstract
Abstract

Bolivian glaciers are an essential source of fresh water for the Altiplano, and any changes they may undergo in the near future due to ongoing climate change are of particular concern. Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, located near the administrative capital La Paz, has been extensively monitored by the GLACIOCLIM observatory in the last two decades. Here we model the glacier dynamics using the 3-D full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice. The model was calibrated and validated over a recent period (1997–2010) using four independent datasets: available observations of surface velocities and surface mass balance were used for calibration, and changes in surface elevation and retreat of the glacier front were used for validation. Over the validation period, model outputs are in good agreement with observations (differences less than a small percentage). The future surface mass balance is assumed to depend on the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and temperature changes through the sensitivity of ELA to temperature. The model was then forced for the 21st century using temperature changes projected by nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here we give results for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The intermediate scenario RCP6.0 led to 69 ± 7% volume loss by 2100, while the two extreme scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, led to 40 ± 7% and 89 ± 4% loss of volume, respectively.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections
      Available formats
      ×
Copyright
Corresponding author
Correspondence: Marion Réveillet <marion.reveillet@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr>
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

S Adhikari and SJ Marshall (2013) Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains. Cryosphere, 7(5), 15271541 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-1527-2013)

R Bindschadler (1982) A numerical model of temperate glacier flow applied to the quiescent phase of a surge-type glacier. J. Glaciol., 28(99), 239265

BZ Carlson and 8 others (2014) Accounting for tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession in mountain plant distribution models. Divers. Distrib., 20(12), 13791391 (doi: 10.1111/ddi.12238)

B Francou , P Ribstein , R Saravia and E Tiriau (1995) Monthly balance and water discharge of an inter-tropical glacier: Zongo Glacier, Cordillera Real, Bolivia, 16° S. J. Glaciol., 41(137), 6167

B Francou , M Vuille , P Wagnon , J Mendoza and JE Sicart (2003) Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the twentieth century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, 16°S. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D5), 4154 (doi: 10.1029/2002JD002959)

O Gagliardini and 14 others (2013) Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model. Geosci. Model Dev., 6(4), 12991318 (doi: 10.5194/gmd-6-1299-2013)

A Gilbert , P Wagnon , C Vincent , P Ginot and M Funk (2010) Atmospheric warming at a high-elevation tropical site revealed by englacial temperatures at Illimani, Bolivia (6340 m above sea level, 16° S, 67° W). J. Geophys. Res., 115(D10), D10109 (doi: 10.1029/2009JD012961)

A Gilbert , O Gagliardini , C Vincent and P Wagnon (2014) A 3-D thermal regime model suitable for cold accumulation zones of polythermal mountain glaciers. J. Geophys. Res., 119(9), 18761893 (doi: 10.1002/2014JF003199)

F Gillet-Chaulet and 8 others (2012) Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model. Cryosphere, 6(4), 15611576 (doi: 10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012)

JW Glen (1955) The creep of polycrystalline ice. Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 228(1175), 519538 (doi: 10.1098/rspa. 1955.0066)

R Greve and H Blatter (2009) Dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers. Springer, Dordrecht

GH Gudmundsson (1999) A three-dimensional numerical model of the confluence area of Unteraargletscher, Bernese Alps, Switzerland. J. Glaciol., 45(150), 219230 (doi: 10.3189/002214399793377086)

A Hubbard , H Blatter , P Nienow , D Mair and B Hubbard (1998) Comparison of a three-dimensional model for glacier flow with field data from Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. J. Glaciol., 44(147), 368378

M Huss , G Jouvet , D Farinotti and A Bauder (2010) Future highmountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14(5), 815829 (doi: 10.5194/hess-14-815-2010)

M Jay-Allemand , F Gillet-Chaulet , O Gagliardini and M Nodet (2011) Investigating changes in basal conditions of Variegated Glacier prior to and during its 1982–1983 surge. Cryosphere, 5(3), 659672 (doi: 10.5194/tc-5-659-2011)

V Jomelli , A Rabatel , D Brunstein , G Hoffmann and B Francou (2009) Fluctuations of glaciers in the tropical Andes over the last millennium and palaeoclimatic implications: a review. Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol., 281(3–4), 269282 (doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2008.10.033)

G Jouvet , M Picasso , J Rappaz and H Blatter (2008) A new algorithm to simulate the dynamics of a glacier: theory and applications. J. Glaciol., 54(188), 801811 (doi: 10.3189/002214308787780049)

E Le Meur and C Vincent (2003) A two-dimensional shallow ice-flow model of Glacier de Saint-Sorlin, France. J. Glaciol., 49(167), 527538 (doi: 10.3189/172756503781830421)

E Le Meur , M Gerbaux , M Schäfer and C Vincent (2007) Disappearance of an Alpine glacier over the 21st Century simulated from modeling its future surface mass balance. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 261(3–4), 367374 (doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2007. 07.022)

L Mingo and GE Flowers (2010) An integrated lightweight ice-penetrating radar system. J. Glaciol., 56(198), 709714 (doi: 10.3189/002214310793146179)

J Oerlemans and 10 others (1998) Modelling the response of glaciers to climate warming. Climate Dyn., 14(4), 267274 (doi: 10.1007/s003820050222)

A Rabatel , B Francou , V Jomelli , P Naveau and D Grancher (2008) A chronology of the Little Ice Age in the tropical Andes of Bolivia (16°S) and its implications for climate reconstruction. Quat. Res., 70(2), 198212 (doi: 10.1016/j.yqres.2008.02.012)

A Rabatel and 7 others (2012) Can the snowline be used as an indicator of the equilibrium line and mass balance for glaciers in the outer tropics? J. Glaciol., 58(212), 10271036 (doi: 10.3189/2012JoG12J027)

A Rabatel and 27 others (2013) Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change. Cryosphere, 7(1), 81102 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-81-2013)

M Schäfer and E Le Meur (2007) Improvement of a 2-D SIA ice-flow model: application to Glacier de Saint-Sorlin, France. J. Glaciol., 53(183), 713722 (doi: 10.3189/002214307784409234)

H Seroussi and 6 others (2011) Ice flux divergence anomalies on 79north Glacier, Greenland. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38(9), L09501 (doi: 10.1029/2011GL047338)

JE Sicart , R Hock and D Six (2008) Glacier melt, air temperature, and energy balance in different climates: the Bolivian Tropics, the French Alps, and northern Sweden. J. Geophys. Res., 113(D24), D24113 (doi: 10.1029/2008JD010406)

JE Sicart , R Hock , P Ribstein , M Litt and E Ramirez (2011) Analysis of seasonal variations in mass balance and meltwater discharge of the tropical Zongo Glacier by application of a distributed energy balance model. J. Geophys. Res., 116(D13), D13105 (doi: 10.1029/2010JD015105)

A Soruco and 9 others (2009) Mass balance of Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, between 1956 and 2006, using glaciological, hydrological and geodetic methods. Ann. Glaciol., 50(50), 18 (doi: 10.3189/172756409787769799)

A Soruco and 6 others (2015) Impacts of glacier shrinkage on water resources of La Paz city, Bolivia (16° S). Ann. Glaciol., 56(70) (doi: 10.3189/2015AoG70A001) (see paper in this issue)

S Sugiyama , A Bauder , C Zahno and M Funk (2007) Evolution of Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, over the past 125 years and in the future: application of an improved flowline model. Ann. Glaciol., 46, 268274 (doi: 10.3189/172756407782871143)

C Vincent , M Vallon , L Reynaud and E Le Meur (2000) Dynamic behaviour analysis of glacier de Saint Sorlin, France, from 40 years of observations, 1957–97. J. Glaciol., 46(154), 499506 (doi: 10.3189/172756500781833052)

C Vincent , M Harter , A Gilbert , E Berthier and D Six (2014) Future fluctuations of Mer de Glace, French Alps, assessed using a parameterized model calibrated with past thickness changes. Ann. Glaciol., 55(66), 1524 (doi: 10.3189/2014AoG66A050)

M Vuille and 6 others (2008) Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: past, present and future. Earth-Sci. Rev., 89(3–4), 7996 (doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.04.002)

L Zhao and 6 others (2014) Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau. J. Glaciol., 60(219), 7182 (doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J126)

T Zwinger , R Greve , O Gagliardini , T Shiraiwa and M Lyly (2007) A full Stokes-flow thermo-mechanical model for firn and ice applied to the Gorshkov crater glacier, Kamchatka. Ann. Glaciol., 45, 2937 (doi: 10.3189/172756407782282543)

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Annals of Glaciology
  • ISSN: 0260-3055
  • EISSN: 1727-5644
  • URL: /core/journals/annals-of-glaciology
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords:

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 9 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 8 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 26th July 2017 - 22nd September 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.