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The base rate controversy: Is the glass half-full or half-empty?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Gideon Keren  and
Lambert J. Thijs
Gideon Keren
Affiliation:
Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands, g.b.keren@tm.tue.nl
Lambert J. Thijs
Affiliation:
Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands, g.b.keren@tm.tue.nl
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Abstract

Setting the two hypotheses of complete neglect and full use of base rates against each other is inappropriate. The proper question concerns the degree to which base rates are used (or neglected), and under what conditions. We outline alternative approaches and recommend regression analysis. Koehler's conclusion that we have been oversold on the base rate fallacy seems to be premature.

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Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 26
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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