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Base rates do not constrain nonprobability judgments

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Paul D. Windschitl  and
Gary L. Wells
Paul D. Windschitl
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011. s1.pdw@isumvs.iastate.edu
Gary L. Wells
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011. s1.pdw@isumvs.iastate.edu
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Abstract

Base rates have no necessary relation to judgments that are not themselves probabilities. There is no logical imperative, for instance, that behavioral base rates must affect causal attributions or that base rate information should affect judgments of legal liability. Decision theorists should be cautious in arguing that base rates place normative constraints on judgments of anything other than posterior probabilities.

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Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 40 - 41
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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