Hostname: page-component-77c78cf97d-9lb97 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-04-25T01:04:23.545Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Can any statements about human behavior be empirically validated?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Baruch Fischoff
Baruch Fischoff
Affiliation:
Decision Research, A Branch of Perceptronics, Eugene, Ore. 97401
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'

Information

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 4 , Issue 3 , September 1981 , pp. 336 - 337
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1981

References

Anderson, A. R. & Belnap, B. D. (1974) Entailment: the logic of relevance and necessity. Vol. I. Princeton: Princeton University Press. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. & Shanteau, J. C. (1970) Information integration in risky decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology 84:441–45. [LLL]Google Scholar
Armstrong, D. M. (1973) Belief, truth, and knowledge. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [WGL]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ayer, A. J. (1946) Language, truth and logic, London: Gollancz. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1979) The role of sample size in sample evaluation. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 24:245–57. [LJCr, AM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980) The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica 44:211–33. [LJCr, AM]Google Scholar
Beach, L. R. & Peterson, C. R. (1966) Subjective probabilities for unions of events. Psychonomic Science 5:307–8. [LLL]Google Scholar
Bergson, H. (1903) Introduction à la métaphysique. Paris: A. Bourgeois (Cahiers de la quinzaine). [LJCa]Google Scholar
Bernoulli, J. (1713) Ars conjectandi. Basle. [LJC]Google Scholar
Berry, J. W. & Dasen, P. R. (1974) History and method in the cross-cultural study of cognition." In: Culture and cognition: Readings in cross-cultural psychology, Berry, & Dasen, . London: Methuen. [SPS]Google Scholar
Billingsley, P. (1979) Probability and measure. New York: Wiley. [BS]Google Scholar
Blackburn, S. (1973) Reason and prediction, Chs. 5–6, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [SB]Google Scholar
Blackburn, S. (1980) Opinions and chances. In: Prospects for pragmatism, ed. Mellor, D.H.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [SB]Google Scholar
Brehmer, B. (1980) In one word: Not from experience. Acta Psychologica 45:223–41. [HJE]Google Scholar
Brunswik, E. (1956) Perception and the representative design of experiments. 2d ed.Berkeley: University of California Press. [HJE]Google Scholar
Carnap, R. (1947) Meaning and necessity. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Carnap, R. (1950) Logical foundations of probability. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Chapman, L.J. & Chapman, J.P. (1967) Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology 72(3): 193–204. [LJCa]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chapman, L.J. & Chapman, J.P. (1969) Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology 74(3):271–80 [LJCa]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chomsky, N. (1965) Aspects of the theory of syntax. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Chomsky, N. (1968) Language and mind. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [SG]Google Scholar
Clifford, B. R. & Bull, R. (1978) The psychology of person identification. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1970) The implications of induction. London: Methuen. [LJCar,]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1971) Some remarks on Grice's views about the logical particles of natural language. In: Pragmatics of natural language, ed. Bar-Hillel, Y.. Dordrecht: Reidel. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1977a) Can the conversationalist hypothesis be defended? Philosophical Studies 31:81–90. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1977b) The probable and the provable. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [LJCa, JLM, AT]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1979) On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition 7:385–407. [LJCar, IN, AT, RWW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1980a) Bayesianism versus Baconianism in the evaluation of medical diagnoses. British Journal for Philosophy of Science 31:45–62. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1980b) Some historical remarks on the Baconian conception of probability. Journal of the History of Ideas 41:219–31. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1980c) What has induction to do with causality? In Applications of inductive logic, ed. Cohen, L. J. & Hesse, M., Oxford: Clarendon Press. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1980d) Whose is the fallacy? A rejoinder to Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Cognition 8:89–92. [LJCar, HJE, IN, AT, RWW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1982, forthcoming) Intuition, induction and the middle way. Monist 65, pt. 3. [LJCr]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (forthcoming) Subjective probability and the paradox of the gatecrasher. Arizona State Law Journal. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Cole, M. & Bruner, J. S. (1971) Cultural differences and inferences about psychological processes. American Psychologist 26:867–76. [SPS]Google Scholar
Copi, I. M. (1954) Symbolic logic. New York: Macmillan. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Daniels, N. (1979) Wide reflective equilibrium and theory acceptance in ethics. Journal of Philosophy 76:256–82. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Daniels, N. (1980) On some methods of ethics and linguistics. Philosophical Studies 37:21–36. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Davidson, D. (1966) The logical form of action sentences. In: The logic of decision and action, ed. Rescher, N.. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. & Corrigan, B. (1974) Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin 81:95–106. [LJCa]Google Scholar
de Morgan, a. (1856) On the symbols of logic. Transactions of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 9:120. [PD]Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (1978) Intentional systems. In: Brainstorms. Montgomery: Bradford Books. [WGL]Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (1979) Brainstorms. Hassocks: Harvester. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (forthcoming a) Three kinds of intentional psychology. In a Thyssen Philosophy Group volume to be edited by Healey, R. A.. [WGL]Google Scholar
Dennett, D. C. (forthcoming b) True believers: The intentional strategy and why it works. In a volume of 1979 Herbert Spencer lectures. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [WGL]Google Scholar
Dummett, M. (1978) The justification of deduction. In: Truth and other enigmas, ed. Dummett, M.. London: Duckworth. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Dumont, B. (1980) L'influence du language et du contexte dans des epreuves de type "logique." Ph.D. thesis, University of Paris. [PW)Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1975) Comment. Journal of the American Statistical Association 70:291–93. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J. (1980) Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making. In: Cognitive processes in choice and decision behavior, ed. Wallsten, T. S., pp. 1–20. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum. [HJE]Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1978) Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review 85:395–416. [HJE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Einhorn, H. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1981) R. M. Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Review of Psychology, 32:53–88. [LJCa, HJE, LLL]Google Scholar
Ellis, B. (1979) Rational belief systems. Oxford: Blackwell. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1980) Current issues in the psychology of reasoning. British Journal of Psychology 71:227–39. [RAG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1982, in press) The psychology of deductive reasoning. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul. [JStBTE]Google Scholar
Falmagne, R. J., ed. (1975) Reasoning: Representation and process. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum. [RAG]Google Scholar
Finetti, B. de (1931) Sul significato soggettivo della probabilità. Fundamenta mathematica 17:298–329. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Finocchiaro, M. (1981) Fallacies and the evaluation of reasoning. American Philosophical Quarterly 18:13–22. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Fischhoff, B. (1975) Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1:288–99. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Fodor, J. A. & Carrett, M. (1966) Some reflections on competence and performance. In: Psycholinguistics Papers, ed. Lyons, J. & Wales, R. J.. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. [GS]Google Scholar
Freedman, D.; Pisani, R. & Purves, R. (1978) Statistics. New York: W. W. Norton. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Glass, A. L.; Holyoak, K. J. & Santa, J. L. (1979) Cognition. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley. [RWW]Google Scholar
Goldberg, L.R. (1970) Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences. Psychological Bulletin 73(6):422–32. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Goldman, A. (1976) Discrimination and perceptual knowledge. Journal of Philosophy 73:771–91. [WGL]Google Scholar
Good, I. J. (1971) Reply to Professor Barnard. In: Foundations of statistical inference, ed. Godambe, V. P. & Sprott, D. A.. Toronto: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Goodman, N. (1954) Fact, fiction, and forecast. London: Athlone. [LJCa, AM]Google Scholar
Goodman, N. (1979) Fact, fiction, and forecast. 3rd ed.Indianapolis: Hackett. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Grace, N. D.; Muench, H. & Chalmers, T. C. (1966) The present status of shunts for portal hypertension in cirrhosis. Journal of Gastroenterology 50:646–91. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Grice, H. P. (1975) Logic and conversation. In: The logic of grammar, ed. Davidson, D. and Harman, G.. Encino, Cal.: Dickenson. [LJCa, RWW]Google Scholar
Griffin, N. (1977) Relative identity. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Haack, S. (1974) Deviant logic. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Hacking, I. (1975) The emergence of probability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Hamblin, C. L. (1970) Fallacies. London. Methuen. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Hammerton, M. (1973) A case of radical probability estimation. Journal of Experimental Psychology 101:252–54. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Hammond, K. R. (1955) Probabilistic functionalism and the clinical method. Psychological Review 62:255–62. [HJE]Google Scholar
Hammond, K. R. (1978) Toward increasing competence of thought in public policy formation. In: Judgment and decision in public policy formation, ed. Hammond, K. R., pp. 11–23. Denver: Westview. [HJE]Google Scholar
Hempel, C. G. (1945) Studies in the logic of confirmation. Mind 54:1–26 & 97–121. [NEW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henle, M. (1962) On the relation between logic and thinking. Psychological Review 69:366–78. [LLL]Google Scholar
Henle, M. (1978) Foreword. In: Human reasoning, ed. Revlin, R. & Mayer, R. E., pp. xiii–xviii. Washington, D. C.: Winston. [MH]Google Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. (1975) Cognitive processes and the assessment of subjective probability distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 70:271–89. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Hume, D. (1739) A treatise of human nature. London: John Noon. [LJCa, SLZ]Google Scholar
Hume, D. (1975) Enquiries concerning human understanding and concerning the principles of morals. ed. Bigge, L. A. Selby. Third Ed. rev. by Nidditch, P. H.. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [JLM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Husserl, E. (1911) Philosophie als strenge Wissenschaft. Logos 1:289–341. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Jeffrey, R. C. (1980) How is it reasonable to base preferences on estimates of chance? In: Science, belief and behaviour, ed. Mellor, D. H.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [LJCa, AM]Google Scholar
Jenkins, H. M. & Ward, W. C. (1965) Judgment of contingency between responses and outcomes. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied 79, whole no. 594. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Johnson-Laird, P.N.; Legrenzi, P. & Sonino Legrenzi, M. (1972) Reasoning and a sense of reality. British Journal of Psychology 63:395–400. [LJCa, RAG, RWW, NEW]Google Scholar
Johnson-Laird, P.N. & Wason, P.C. (1970) A theoretical analysis of insight into a reasoning task. Cognitive Psychology 1:134–48. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Johnson-Laird, P.N. & Wason, P.C. (1977) Postscript. In: Thinking: Readings in Cognitive Science, ed. Johnson-Laird, P. N. & Wason, P. C.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972a) On the psychology of prediction. Oregon Research Institute Research Bulletin 12, whole no. 4. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972b) Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology 3: 430–54. [LJCa, RWW]Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80:237–51. [LJCa, RWW]Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1974) Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. In: The concept of probability in psychological experiments, ed. von Holstein, C. A. S. Stael. Dordrecht: Reidel. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979) On the interpretation of intuitive probability: A reply to Jonathan Cohen. Cognition 7:409–11. [LJCar, AT, RWW]Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1981, in press) On the study of statistical intuitions. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [AT]Google Scholar
Keynes, J. M. (1921) A treatise on probability. London: Macmillan. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Klotz, I. (1980) The n-ray affair. Scientific American 242:168–75. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Kneale, W. & Kneale, M. (1962) The development of logic. Oxford: Clarendon Press. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Kocher, P. H. (1957) Francis Bacon on the science of jurisprudence. Journal of the History of Ideas 18:3–26. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Kolmogorov, A. (1950) Foundations of probability. New York: Chelsea. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Kripke, S. (1972) Naming and necessity. In: Semantics of natural language, ed. Davidson, D. and Harman, G., Dordrecht: Reidel. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Kyburg, H. E. (1974) The logical foundations of statistical inference. Dordrecht: Reidel. [IL]Google Scholar
Lakatos, I. (1970) Falsificationism and the methodology of scientific research programs. In: Criticism and the growth of knowledge, ed. Lakatos, I. and Musgrave, A. E.. Amsterdam: North Holland. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Lemmon, E. J. (1965) Beginning logic. London: Nelson. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Levi, I. (1967) Cambling with truth. New York: Knopf. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Levi, I. (1977) Direct inference. Journal of Philosophy 74:5–29. [IL]Google Scholar
Levi, I. (1980) The enterprise of knowledge. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. [IL]Google Scholar
Lewis, C. I. & Langford, C. H. (1959) Symbolic logic. New York: Dover. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Lewis, D. (1973) Counterfactuals. Oxford: Blackwell. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Lewontin, R. C. (1978) Adaptation. Scientific American 239:212–30. [HJE]Google Scholar
Lewontin, R. C. (1979) Sociobiology as an adaptationist program. Behavioral Science 24:5–14. [HJE]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lichtenstein, S. & Slovic, P. (1973) Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas. Journal of Experimental Psychology 101:16–20. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Loftus, E. F. (1979) Eyewitness testimony. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1976) Model based decision and inference in stud poker. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 105:217–39. [LLL]Google Scholar
Loftus, E. F. (1980) Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness. Paper presented at 18th Bayesian Research Conference. Los Angeles. Cal. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L. & Ekberg, P. H. S. (1980) Test of an ordering hypothesis of risky decision making. Acta Psychologica 45:161–67. [LLL]Google Scholar
Lyon, D. & Slovic, P. (1976) Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation. Acta Psychologica 40:287–98. (LJCa, AM]Google Scholar
Mackie, J. L. (1973) Truth, probability. and paradox. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [LJCr, JLM]Google Scholar
Lyon, D. & Slovic, P. (1974) The cement of the universe: A study of causation. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [JLM]Google Scholar
Manktelow, K. I. & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1979) Facilitation of reasoning by realism: Effect or non-effect. British Journal of Psychology 70:477–88. [LJCa, RAG, NEW]Google Scholar
March, J. G. (1978) Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice. Bell Journal of Economics 9:587–608. (LLL)Google Scholar
Mellor, D. H. (1971) The matter of chance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Meyer, D. K. (1980) Some/is: An investigation of logical thinking. Ph.D. dissertation, Graduate Faculty, New School for Social Research. [MH]Google Scholar
Mill, J. S. (1874) A system of logic. 8th ed.New York: Harper. [MH]Google Scholar
Mises, R. von. (1957) Probability, statistics and truth. London: Allen & Un-win. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Moravcsik, J. M. E. (1969) Competence, creativity, and innateness. Philosophy Forum 1:407–37. [GS]Google Scholar
Münsterberg, H. (1908) On the witness stand: Essays on psychology and crime. New York: The McClure Company. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Mynatt, C. R.; Doherty, M. E. & Tweney, R. D. (1977) Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 29:85–95. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Mynatt, C. R.; Doherty, M. E. & Tweney, R. D. (1978) Consequences of confirmation and disconfirmation in a simulated research environment. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 30:395–406. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Nagel, E. (1939) Principles of the theory of probability. International Encyclopaedia of Unified Science, vol. 1, no. 6. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Neisser, U. (1976) Cognition and reality. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman. [RAG]Google Scholar
Newell, A. (1980) Reasoning, problem solving and decision processes: The problem space as a fundamental category. In: Attention and performance VIII. ed. Nickerson, R.. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum. [RAG]Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Borgida, E. (1975) Attribution and the psychology of prediction. Journal of Personal and Social Psychology 32:932–43. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Ross, L. (1980) Human inference: Strategies and short-comings and social judgment. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall. [LJCar, JStBTE, SPS]Google Scholar
Piaget, J. (1972) The principles of genetic epistemology. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Popper, K. H. (1959a) The logic of scientific discovery. London: Hutchinson. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Popper, K. H. (1959b) The propensity interpretation of probability. British Journal for Philosophy of Science 10:25–42. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Popper, K. H. (1968) On the rules of detachment and so-called inductive logic. In: The problem of inductive logic, ed. Lakatos, I.. Amsterdam: North Holland. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Postman, L. & Tolman, E. C. (1959) Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism. In: Psychology: A study of a science, vol. 1, ed. Koch, S., pp. 502–64. New York: McGraw-Hill. [HJE]Google Scholar
Quine, W. V. O. (1952) Methods of logic. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Quine, W. V. O. (1960) Word and object. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Ramsey, F. P. (1931) The foundations of mathematics. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. [LJCar]Google Scholar
Randi, J. (1975) The magic of Uri Geller. New York: Ballantine Books. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Rawls, J. (1972) A theory of justice. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Reich, P. A. (1969) The finiteness of natural language. Language 45:831–43. [GS]Google Scholar
Reichenbach, H. (1944) Philosophic foundations of quantum mechanics. Berkeley: University of California Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Reich, P. A. (1949) The theory of probability. Berkeley: University of California Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Reid, T. (1969) Essays on the intellectual powers of man. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, reproduced from 1814-1815 ed., first published 1785. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Revlin, R., & Leirer, V. O. (1978) The effect of personal biases on syllogistic reasoning: Rational decisions from personalized representations. In: Human reasoning, ed. Revlin, R. & Mayer, R. E.. Washington, D. C.: Winston. [JStBTE, RAG]Google Scholar
Revlin, R., & Mayer, R. E., eds. (1978) Human reasoning. Washington, D. C.: Winston. [RAG, MH]Google Scholar
Revlis, R. (1975) Syllogistic reasoning: Logical decisions from a complex data base. In: Beasoning: Bepresentation and process, ed. Falmagne, R. J., pp. 93–133. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum. [MH]Google Scholar
Ross, L. & Lepper, M. R. (forthcoming) The perseverance of beliefs: Empirical and normative considerations. In: New directions for methodology of behavioral science: Fallible judgment in behavioral research, ed. Shweder, R. A. & Fiske, D.. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Russell, B. (1919) Introduction to mathematical philosophy. London: Allen & Unwin. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Sampson, G. R. (1975) The form of language. London: Weidenfeld & Nicol-son. [LJCa, GS]Google Scholar
Sampson, G. R. (1979) Liberty and language. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [GS]Google Scholar
Seligman, M. E. P. (1970) On the generality of the laws of learning. Psychological Review 77:406–18. [HJE]Google Scholar
Shackle, G. L. S. (1949) Expectation in economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Shafer, G. (1976) A mathematical theory of evidence: Princeton: Princeton University Press. [DHK]Google Scholar
Shafer, G. (1978) Non-additive probabilities in the work of Bernoulli and Lambert. Archive for History of Exact Sciences 19:309–70. [LJCr]Google Scholar
Shanteau, J. C. (1974) Component processes in risky decision judgments. Journal of Experimental Psychology 103:680–91. [LLL]Google Scholar
Shuford, E. H. (1959) A comparison of subjective probabilities for elementary and compound events. University of North Carolina Psychometric Laboratory Report #20. [LLL]Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1957) Models of man. New York: John Wiley. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1978) Rationality as process and as product of thought. American Economic Review 68:1–16. [HJE]Google Scholar
Skyrms, B. (1980) Causal necessity. New Haven: Yale University Press. [BS]Google Scholar
Slovic, P.; Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S. (1976) Cognitive processes and societal risk taking. In: Cognition and social behavior, ed. Carroll, J. S. & Payne, J. W.. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Slovic, P.; Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S. (1977) Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 28:1–39. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Smedslund, J. (1970) Circular relation between understanding and logic. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 11:217–19. [JS]Google Scholar
Smedslund, J. (1977) Piaget's psychology in practice. British Journal of Educational Psychology 4:71–6. [JS]Google Scholar
Smedslund, J. (1978) Bandura's theory of self-efficacy: A set of common sense theorems. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 19:1–14. [JS]Google Scholar
Smedslund, J. (in press a) The logic of psychological treatment. Scandavian Journal of Psychology 22: [JS]Google Scholar
Smedslund, J. (in press b) What is necessarily true in psychology? International Journal of Theoretical Psychology: Annals 1: [JS]Google Scholar
Sober, E. (1978) Psychologism. Journal of the Theory of Social Behavior 8:165–91. [WCL]Google Scholar
Sober, E. (1981) The evolution of rationality. Synthese 46:95–120. [WGL]Google Scholar
Sommers, F. T. (1981) The logic of natural language. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Spinoza, B. de. (1914) Opera. Hague: Nijhoff. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Stich, S. P. (1975) Logical form and natural language. Philosophical Studies 28:397–418. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Stich, S. & Nisbett, R. (1980) Justification and the psychology of human reasoning. Philosophy of Science 47:188–202. [REN, SPS]Google Scholar
Swinburne, R. G. (1964) Falsifiability of scientific theories. Mind 73:434–36. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Toda, M. (1962) The design of a fungus-eater: A model of human behavior in an unsophisticated environment. Behavioral Science 7:164–83. [HJE]Google Scholar
Todhunter, I. (1949) A history of the mathematical theory of probability from the time of Pascal to that of Laplace. Reprint of 1865 edition. New York: Chelsea. [LJCar, PD, IN]Google Scholar
Tribe, L. H. (1973) Technology assessment and the fourth discontinuity: The limits of instrumental rationality. Southern California Law Review 46:617–60. [HJE]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1967) Utility theory and additivity analysis of risky choices. Journal of Experimental Psychology 75:27–36. [LLL]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1971) The belief in the "law of small numbers." Psychological Bulletin 76:105–10. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1973) Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology 5:207–32. [LJCa, RWW]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974) Judgment under uncertainly: Heuristics and biases. Science 125:1124–31. [LJCa, PD, RJS]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1977) Causal thinking in judgment under uncertainty. In: Basic problems in methodology and linguistics, ed. Butts, R. & Hintikka, J.. Dordrecht: Reidel. [LJCa. ILAM, IN]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1980) Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In: Progress in Social Psychology, ed. Fishbein, M., 1:49–72. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum. [SLZ]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1981) The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211:453–58. [AT]Google Scholar
Van Duyne, P. C. (1974) Realism and linguistic complexity. British Journal of Psychology 65:59–67. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Van Duyne, P. C. (1976) Necessity and contingency in reasoning. Acta Psychologica 40:85–101. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Venn, J. (1888) The logic of chance. 3rd ed.London: Macmillan and Co. [IN]Google Scholar
Wagenaar, W. A. (1972) Generation of random sequences by human subjects: A critical survey of literature. Psychological Bulletin 77:65–72. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1960) On the failure to eliminate hypothesis in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 12:129–40. [LJCa, JStBTE, NEW]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1966) Reasoning. In: New horizons in psychology, vol I, ed. Foss, B.. Harmondsworth: Penguin. [LJCa, JStBTE, RWW]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1968) Reasoning about a rule. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 20:273–81. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1969) Regression in reasoning? British Journal of Psychology 60:471–80. [PW]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1977) Self-contradictions. In: Thinking: Readings in cognitive science, ed. Johnson-Laird, P. N. & Wason, P. C., pp. 114–28. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [MH]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. & Golding, E. (1974) The language of inconsistency. British Journal of Psychology 65:537–46. [PW]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1970) A conflict between selecting and evaluating information in an inferential task. British Journal of Psychology 61:509–15. [PW]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1972) Psychology of reasoning: Structure and content. London: Batsford. [LJCa, RJS, PW, NEW]Google Scholar
Wason, P. C. & Shapiro, D. (1971) Natural and contrived experience in a reasoning problem. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 23:63–71. [LJCa]Google Scholar
Wertheimer, M. (1959) Productive thinking. Enl. ed.New York: Harper. [MH]Google Scholar
Wetherick, N. E. (1970) On the representativeness of some experiments in cognition. Bulletin of the British Psychological Society 23:213–14. [NEW]Google Scholar
Wetherick, N. E. (1971) "Representativeness" in a reasoning problem: A reply to Shapiro. Bulletin of the British Psychological Society 24:213–14. [NEW]Google Scholar
Wetherick, N. E. (1973) Review of Wason, P. C. and Johnson-Laird, P. N., "Psychology of reasoning, structure and content." (1972) Bulletin of the British Psychological Society 26:45–46. [NEW]Google Scholar
Woodworth, R. S. & Sells, S. B. (1935) An atmosphere effect in syllogistic reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology 18:451–60. [RAG]Google Scholar