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From base-rate to cumulative respect

  • C. Philip Beaman (a1) and Rachel McCloy (a1)


The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be “notorious,” as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.



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Sloman, S. A., Over, D. E., Slovak, L. & Stibel, J. M. (2003) Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 91:296309.
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences
  • ISSN: 0140-525X
  • EISSN: 1469-1825
  • URL: /core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences
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