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From base-rate to cumulative respect

  • C. Philip Beaman (a1) and Rachel McCloy (a1)

Abstract

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be “notorious,” as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.

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References

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Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (1995) How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review 102:684704.
Koehler, J. J. (1996) The base-rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19:153.
McCloy, R., Beaman, C. P., Morgan, B. & Speed, R. (2007) Training conditional and cumulative risk judgments: The role of frequencies, problem-structure and einstellung. Applied Cognitive Psychology 21:325–44.
McCloy, R., Byrne, R. M. J. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (submitted) Understanding cumulative risk.
Morton, J. (1968) A singular lack of incidental learning. Nature 215:203204.
Sedlmeier, P., Hertwig, R. & Gigerenzer, G. (1998) Are judgments of the positional frequencies of letters systematically biased due to availability? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 24:754–70.
Sloman, S. A., Over, D. E., Slovak, L. & Stibel, J. M. (2003) Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 91:296309.
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences
  • ISSN: 0140-525X
  • EISSN: 1469-1825
  • URL: /core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences
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