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Probabilistic fallacies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Henry E. Kyburg
Henry E. Kyburg
Affiliation:
Philosophy and Computer Science Department, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14327. Electronic mail: kyburgecs.rochester.edu
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Abstract

Two distinct issues are sometimes confused in the base rate literature: Why do people make logical mistakes in the assessment of probabilities? and why do subjects not use base rates the way experimenters do? The latter problem may often reflect differences in an implicit reference class rather than a disinclination to update a base rate by Bayes' theorem. Also important are considerations concerning the interaction of several potentially relevant base rates.

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Open Peer Commentary
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 31
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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