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The Urban-Rural Divide in Canadian Federal Elections, 1896–2019

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2021

David A. Armstrong II ,
Jack Lucas Open the ORCID record for Jack Lucas[Opens in a new window]  and
Zack Taylor Open the ORCID record for Zack Taylor[Opens in a new window]
David A. Armstrong II
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Western University, Social Science Centre Rm 4154, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada
Jack Lucas
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
Zack Taylor*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Western University, Social Science Centre Rm 4154, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: zack.taylor@uwo.ca.
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Abstract

Using a new measure of urbanity for every federal electoral district in Canada from 1896 to the present, this article describes the long-term development of the urban-rural divide in Canadian federal elections. We focus on three questions: (1) when the urban-rural divide has existed in Canada, identifying three main periods—the 1920s, the 1960s and 1993–present—in which the urban-rural cleavage has been especially important in federal elections; (2) where the urban-rural divide has existed, finding that in the postwar period the urban-rural cleavage is a pan-Canadian phenomenon; and (3) how well urbanity predicts district-level election outcomes. We argue that the urban-rural divide is important for understanding election outcomes during several periods of Canadian political development, and never more so than in recent decades. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for research on urban-rural cleavages, Canadian electoral politics and Canadian political development.

Résumé

Résumé

À l'aide d'une nouvelle mesure de l'urbanité pour chaque circonscription électorale fédérale au Canada de 1896 à aujourd'hui, cet article décrit l'évolution à long terme de l'urbain-rural dans la politique électorale fédérale canadienne. Nous nous concentrons sur trois questions : (1) quand le clivage urbain-rural a existé au Canada, en identifiant trois périodes principales—les années 1920, les années 1960 et de 1993 à ce jour—au cours desquelles le clivage urbain-rural a été particulièrement important dans les élections fédérales; (2) où le clivage urbain-rural a existé, en constatant que dans la période d'après-guerre, le clivage urbain-rural est un phénomène pancanadien; et (3) dans quelle mesure l'urbanité prédit les résultats des élections au niveau des circonscriptions. Nous soutenons que le clivage urbain-rural est important pour comprendre les résultats électoraux au cours de plusieurs périodes du développement politique canadien, et jamais autant qu'au cours des dernières décennies. Nous concluons en discutant des implications de nos résultats pour la recherche sur les clivages urbains-ruraux, la politique électorale canadienne et le développement politique du Canada.

Keywords

federal electionsrepresentationurban-rural cleavageCanadian political developmentpolitical historyélections fédéralesreprésentationclivage urbain-ruraldéveloppement politique canadienhistoire politique
Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 55 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 84 - 106
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Canadian Political Science Association (l’Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique

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