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It's the Christian Democrats' Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957–2012

  • Patricio Navia (a1) and Rodrigo Osorio (a2)
Abstract

For different reasons, identification with political parties has been on the decline everywhere. Using polling data, we show that political identification in Chile increased in times of polarization before 1973 and in the transition to democracy in 1990 and fell under democratic consolidation. The decline comes primarily from falling identification with the largest party, the centrist Christian Democratic Party (PDC). Assessing the determinants of party identification, we report that while in the 1960s the PDC had a wide appeal as it attracted voters identified with the left, centre and right, in recent years the PDC attracts support from centrists and older people.

Pour différentes raisons, l'identification partisane est en diminution partout. À partir de données de sondages, nous démontrons que l'identification partisane au Chili a augmenté durant la période de polarisation politique antérieure à 1973, ainsi que durant la période de transition démocratique des années 1990, avant de diminuer durant la période de consolidation démocratique. Le principal facteur qui explique ce déclin est la chute de l'identification avec le plus important parti politique, le Parti de la Démocratie chrétienne (PDC) situé au centre de l’échiquier politique. L'analyse des déterminants de l'identification partisane révèle que durant les années 1960, le PDC attirait des électeurs de gauche, de centre et de droite alors que depuis les dernières années, il attire essentiellement des électeurs de centre et plus âgés.

Copyright
Corresponding author
New York University/Universidad Diego Portales, 726 Broadway, Room 666, New York NY, 10003, patricio.navia@nyu.edu
Universidad de Santiago de Chile/Universidad Diego Portales, Ejercito 333, Santiago, Chile, rodrigo.osorio@mail.udp.cl
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