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Popularity and Vote: Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election

  • Antoine Auberger (a1)

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to build a model that explains and forecasts the outcome of the second-round vote in the French presidential elections (with the hypothesis of a classic duel between left and right) in each department and at the national level. This model highlights the influence of the popularity of the Socialist party and a partisan variable in the explanation of the second-round vote for the candidate of the left in the French presidential elections. Its forecasts for the elections of the past (1981–1995 and 1981–2007, excluding 2002) are satisfactory and we make ex ante forecasts for the 2007 French presidential election.

Résumé. L'objet de cet article est de construire un modèle qui explique et prévoit le résultat du second tour de scrutin aux élections présidentielles françaises (en supposant le duel classique entre la gauche et la droite) dans chaque département et au niveau national. Ce modèle met en lumière l'influence de la popularité du Parti socialiste et d'une variable partisane dans l'explication du vote au second tour pour le candidat de la gauche aux élections présidentielles. Les prévisions ex post pour les élections passées (de 1981 à 1995 et de 1981 à 2007, en excluant 2002) sont satisfaisantes et on établit des prévisions ex ante pour l'élection présidentielle française de 2007.

Corresponding author
Antoine Auberger, University of Paris 2 and CES-LAEP, University of Paris 1, Maison des Sciences Economiques 106-112, bd de l'Hôpital, 75647 Paris cedex 13, France.
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Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique
  • ISSN: 0008-4239
  • EISSN: 1744-9324
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