Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

  • Namrata Kala (a1), Pradeep Kurukulasuriya (a2) and Robert Mendelsohn (a3)
Abstract
Abstract

This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.

Copyright
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

R.M. Adams , R.A. Fleming , C. Chang , B.A. McCarl , and C. Rosenzweig (1995), ‘A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture’, Climate Change 30(2): 147167.

J. Aitchison (2003), ‘Compositional data analysis: where are we and where should we be heading?’, Mathematical Geology 37(7): 829850.

A. Basist , N.C. Grody , T.C. Peterson , and C.N. Williams (1998), ‘Using the special sensor microwave/imager to monitor land surface temperatures, wetness, and snow cover’, Journal of Applied Meteorology 37(9): 888911.

G. Boer , G. Flato , and D. Ramsden (2000), ‘A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century’, Climate Dynamics 16(6): 427450.

D.R. Cox and N. Wermuth (1996), Multivariate Dependencies, London: Chapman and Hall.

R. Darwin (2004), ‘Effects of greenhouse gas emissions on world agriculture, food consumption, and economic welfare’, Climatic Change 66(1): 191238.

C. Giri , Z. Zhu , and B. Reed (2005), ‘A comparative analysis of the Global Land Cover 2000 and MODIS land cover data sets’, Remote Sensing of Environment 94(1): 123132.

R. Kieschnick and B.D. McCullough (2003), ‘Regression analysis of variates observed on (0,1): percentages, proportions, and fractions’, Statistical Modelling 3(3): 193213.

P. Kurukulasuriya , R. Mendelsohn , (2006), ‘Will African agriculture survive climate change?’, World Bank Economic Review 20(3): 367388.

P. McCullagh and J.A. Nelder (1989), Generalized Linear Models (2nd ed.), New York: Chapman and Hall.

R. Mendelsohn and A. Dinar (2009), Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation, and Distributional Effects, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.

R. Ospina and S. Ferrari (2010), ‘Inflated beta distributions’, Statistical Papers 51(1): 111126.

L.E. Papke and J.E. Wooldridge (1996), ‘Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401 (K) plan participation rates’, Journal of Applied Econometrics 11(6): 619632.

M.L. Parry , C. Rosenzweig , A. Iglesias , M. Livermore , and G. Fischer (2004), ‘Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios’, Global Environmental Change 14(1): 5367.

J. Reilly , N. Hohmann , and S. Kane (1994), ‘Climate change and agricultural trade: who benefits, who loses?’, Global Environmental Change 4(1): 2436.

C. Rosenzweig and M. Parry (1994), ‘Potential impact of climate change on world food supply’, Nature 367(1): 133138.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Environment and Development Economics
  • ISSN: 1355-770X
  • EISSN: 1469-4395
  • URL: /core/journals/environment-and-development-economics
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
Type Description Title
PDF
Supplementary Materials

Kala Supplementary Material
Appendix

 PDF (190 KB)
190 KB

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 5
Total number of PDF views: 31 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 131 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 23rd May 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.