Tropical dry forests (TDFs), which comprise 40% of tropical forests and are most widespread in the Neotropics, remain under-researched. TDFs support high biodiversity and are inhabited by many Indigenous communities, making their degradation a critical socio-environmental problem, yet local drivers of deforestation are overlooked. Mexico holds the largest extent of TDFs, yet these ecosystems face high levels of disturbance and limited protection. This study models the impacts of global environmental change on a TDF in southern Mexico, focusing on land-cover dynamics, biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. We applied spatially explicit land-cover modelling under three long-term scenarios (Optimistic, Business as Usual and Pessimistic) based on varying rates of change, climate and socioeconomic conditions. Drivers were dynamically updated to reflect plausible trajectories. By overlaying land cover with species distribution data, we identified farming expansion as the primary threat to 35 endemic vertebrate species, 27 of which face a high risk of extinction. This biodiversity loss compromises ecosystem functioning and weakens the resilience of local communities. We recommend integrating conservation with Indigenous participation in sustainable land-use practices, aligned with the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to halt species extinction and conserve ecosystems.

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